NFL · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Bengals: O/U 52.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a0a46785de674c7398db15ae8bc6e9eb7be5feb4cc0bed8f9cd30b3d9eb460f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 13,160$6,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,843.24 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 52c | 11,758$6,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,114.16 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…d3eabacked Over | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 49c | 5,814$2,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,961.83 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 678.92$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.25 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Under | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 53c | 510.64$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.64 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 50c | 465$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.5 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Over | 52c | 208.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 49c | 162$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.74 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 54c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 47c | 109$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Under | 47c | 107$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…a439backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Under | 47c | 97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 47c | 87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3381…52bcbacked Under | 49c | 68.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef2…6e74backed Over | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…e568backed Over | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…04e9backed Under | 49c | 35.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked Over | 53c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 46c | 29.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed Over | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked Over | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…ad50backed Over | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a1…be8bbacked Over | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Over | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…77fdbacked Over | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Over | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cardinals vs. Bengals: O/U 52.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bengals (-4.5)Bengals won
- Cardinals vs. BengalsBengals won
- Cardinals vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Bengals: O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Bengals (-5.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Bengals (-6.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Bengals (-7.5)Bengals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.