NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bengals (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80156e3aac9baaa4b71bd9517e3a5547a9ed881f7af0aea548149c1e9ff18db5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bengalsof Bengals, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $181,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed Cardinals | 46c | 106,500$48,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,985.39 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…ad90backed Bengals | 54c | 51,236$27,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,580.83 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Bengals | 54c | 32,624$17,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,007.04 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Bengals | 54c | 22,094$12,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,094.08 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cardinals | 44c | 10,516$4,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,638.71 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…c9b4backed Bengals | 56c | 9,589$5,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,219.36 | 181 | 40.9%74 W · 107 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Bengals | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Cardinals | 45c | 3,956$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.29 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Cardinals | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…8cd4backed Bengals | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Cardinals | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Bengals | 55c | 773$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.92 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Bengals | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.29 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Cardinals | 46c | 657.21$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…b1e0backed Bengals | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bengals | 54c | 484.18$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.9 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Cardinals | 45c | 360$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Bengals | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cardinals | 44c | 286.95$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.39 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cardinals | 45c | 276.45$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.4 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Bengals | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Cardinals | 45c | 259$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Bengals | 54c | 252.41$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.33 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cardinals | 45c | 250.55$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.75 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Bengals | 54c | 217$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Cardinals | 46c | 195.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8160…c908backed Bengals | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…2fe0backed Bengals | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed Bengals | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bengals | 57c | 162$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cardinals | 45c | 160.8$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed Bengals | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Bengals | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…29c2backed Cardinals | 47c | 104.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked Bengals | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Bengals | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Cardinals | 46c | 99.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bengals | 54c | 99.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Bengals | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0232…9391backed Bengals | 56c | 88.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Cardinals | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Bengals | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bengals | 54c | 76.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Cardinals | 46c | 76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…8469backed Bengals | 56c | 75.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Cardinals | 17c | 65.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Cardinals | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Cardinals | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x328a…224abacked Cardinals | 46c | 56.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…79a8backed Cardinals | 46c | 55.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Cardinals | 44c | 55.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3381…52bcbacked Cardinals | 46c | 52.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Bengals | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ec…4f9cbacked Bengals | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b33…8c31backed Cardinals | 46c | 49.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…a2a1backed Bengals | 56c | 46.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e56…35cbbacked Bengals | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x715c…78c0backed Bengals | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Cardinals | 45c | 43.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Cardinals | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Bengals | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 141 | 58.9%83 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…7a72backed Bengals | 55c | 37.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…7976backed Bengals | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Bengals | 69c | 34.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…9289backed Cardinals | 46c | 32.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Cardinals | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Bengals | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +57%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Bengals | 54c | 25.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Cardinals | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…4c2cbacked Bengals | 55c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Bengals | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Bengals | 70c | 19.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bengals (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bengals (-4.5)Bengals won
- Cardinals vs. BengalsBengals won
- Cardinals vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Bengals: O/U 52.5Under won
- Cardinals vs. Bengals: O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Bengals (-5.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Bengals (-7.5)Bengals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.