NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bengals (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc158b0b47ce97bd9c269f40cfb70c83bc6f2ba7a6fee0359bf5e381a4960ab23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bengalsof Bengals, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Cardinals | 43c | 773$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.39 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bengals | 57c | 616.96$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.29 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bengals | 57c | 424.68$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.08 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Bengals | 57c | 186.31$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.11 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Cardinals | 43c | 177$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Bengals | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Cardinals | 42c | 99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Bengals | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Cardinals | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Bengals | 57c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Bengals | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Bengals | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Bengals | 58c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e71…8913backed Bengals | 57c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Bengals | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Bengals | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a1…be8bbacked Bengals | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Bengals | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…b051backed Bengals | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bengals (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bengals (-4.5)Bengals won
- Cardinals vs. BengalsBengals won
- Cardinals vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5Over won
- Cardinals vs. Bengals: O/U 52.5Under won
- Cardinals vs. Bengals: O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Bengals (-6.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Bengals (-7.5)Bengals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.