NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bears (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11fc557cd40b9a91051ae159d11767c307b1a5d391524eb8347c384f2c24c276
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Bears, Packers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Packers | 50c | 38,934$19,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,437.6 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Bears | 50c | 25,237$12,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,514.77 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Packers | 50c | 21,380$10,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,690.03 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bears | 50c | 14,195$7,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,095.61 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bears | 49c | 11,103$5,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,715.24 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Bears | 49c | 7,819$3,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,013.52 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3e…949bbacked Packers | 51c | 7,040$3,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,558.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bears | 49c | 7,012$3,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,576.12 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…d3eabacked Bears | 49c | 6,125$3,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,123.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…c3eabacked Packers | 52c | 5,769$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -7.7wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed Bears | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…76e5backed Packers | 51c | 4,855$2,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,476.21 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaceb…6f8ebacked Bears | 51c | 3,950$2,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,935.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Packers | 52c | 3,365$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Bears | 51c | 2,685$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,315.79 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bears | 49c | 2,527$1,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.38 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Packers | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.98 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bears | 49c | 1,650$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.5 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Bears | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.99 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bears | 49c | 1,093$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.73 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf6…d7f7backed Packers | 52c | 1,026$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.58 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bears | 49c | 890.24$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.02 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d6…9e5bbacked Packers | 50c | 799$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba5…6ff7backed Bears | 51c | 799$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…e9f3backed Bears | 51c | 755$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…cf90backed Packers | 50c | 755$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bears | 51c | 743.28$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.42 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Bears | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c5…0ad1backed Packers | 51c | 686.27$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Packers | 50c | 662$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Bears | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Packers | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 161 | 39.1%63 W · 98 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0a…69d3backed Packers | 51c | 599.96$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.98 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735f…0e5bbacked Bears | 50c | 429.46$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.73 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Bears | 48c | 404.62$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.4 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Packers | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bears | 51c | 379.39$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.66 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Bears | 48c | 239.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.79 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…e5cabacked Packers | 51c | 239.22$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Bears | 49c | 230$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Bears | 48c | 208$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Bears | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd65…fcfabacked Bears | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Packers | 51c | 178$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.78 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Bears | 46c | 162.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.27 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Bears | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe64…873ebacked Packers | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f87…c701backed Packers | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Packers | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Packers | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…37c1backed Packers | 66c | 114.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Bears | 43c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…b805backed Bears | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…3312backed Packers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Packers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Packers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Packers | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Packers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59eb…fa33backed Packers | 51c | 98.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Packers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d51…427bbacked Packers | 50c | 87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…fc7abacked Packers | 50c | 82.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Packers | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…3046backed Bears | 62c | 78.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…b729backed Packers | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Bears | 49c | 76.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bears | 45c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Bears | 49c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…7b68backed Bears | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Packers | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…5abfbacked Bears | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…9e3bbacked Bears | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Bears | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Packers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Bears | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…f6fbbacked Packers | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb75…4761backed Packers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…45c9backed Packers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bears (-1.5)Packers won
- Emanuel Wilson: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- First Touchdown: Josh JacobsNo Touchdown won
- Packers vs. BearsBears won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H MoneylinePackers won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 45.5Under won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.