NFL · resolved market
Spread: Packers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b6799f9b463309dfb6079f93da31ffcf393bb95927ed1924d164573ee69944b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Packers, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Bears | 60c | 5,924$3,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,369.7 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Packers | 40c | 5,386$2,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.55 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Packers | 44c | 2,356$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.52 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bears | 56c | 1,500$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.99 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Packers | 43c | 990.57$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.95 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Bears | 56c | 598.28$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.24 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bears | 57c | 553$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.79 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Packers | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Bears | 55c | 480$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Bears | 56c | 373$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.12 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Packers | 46c | 289.65$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.04 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Packers | 57c | 280$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.19 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Bears | 57c | 261$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.49 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bears | 42c | 190$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.2 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Bears | 54c | 166.07$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.39 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Bears | 57c | 158$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0031…e153backed Packers | 43c | 141.51$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…1405backed Packers | 43c | 74.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Bears | 57c | 71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Packers | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Bears | 58c | 61.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Bears | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…6f98backed Packers | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc232…4dddbacked Packers | 43c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Packers | 44c | 44.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bears | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Packers | 46c | 29.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Packers | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Bears | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Bears | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bears (-1.5)Packers won
- Emanuel Wilson: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- First Touchdown: Josh JacobsNo Touchdown won
- Packers vs. BearsBears won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H MoneylinePackers won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 45.5Under won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.