NFL · resolved market
Spread: Packers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a025dd5e78b55114a5019a2d99ce80f7424e656d894bc4a231835b50aeaef92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Packers, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bears | 51c | 7,787$3,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,823.82 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Packers | 47c | 6,406$3,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,034.9 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bears | 65c | 2,302$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.88 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Bears | 67c | 1,480$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.4 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Bears | 63c | 1,354$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.84 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Packers | 35c | 1,317$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.11 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Packers | 48c | 1,140$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.78 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Packers | 33c | 984$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.02 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…8af2backed Packers | 37c | 980$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.6 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Packers | 33c | 526$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.58 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bears | 53c | 497$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.59 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Bears | 62c | 480$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.2 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Bears | 65c | 400.04$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.01 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Packers | 37c | 373.62$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.24 | 120 | 31.7%38 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Packers | 25c | 350$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Packers | 34c | 304$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe5…2b7cbacked Bears | 68c | 295.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a22…847bbacked Packers | 36c | 278.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Packers | 41c | 251.9$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Packers | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Bears | 61c | 240$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Packers | 37c | 219.03$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.02 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Packers | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf642…0c19backed Packers | 35c | 165.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Bears | 61c | 163$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14e…f856backed Bears | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Packers | 37c | 153.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Bears | 67c | 151.39$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Packers | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…f955backed Bears | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bears | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Packers | 36c | 74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Bears | 61c | 57.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb9…65bfbacked Packers | 39c | 51.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Bears | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Bears | 61c | 48.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…fe32backed Bears | 66c | 48.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Packers | 32c | 45.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Packers | 51c | 37.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Bears | 61c | 36.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd931…ae99backed Packers | 39c | 36.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…465bbacked Packers | 39c | 36.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa07…deabbacked Packers | 39c | 32.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Packers | 35c | 32.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Packers | 39c | 31.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…5285backed Packers | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…58b0backed Bears | 65c | 29.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Bears | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Bears | 62c | 29.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Bears | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Bears | 67c | 22.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…ad82backed Bears | 62c | 21.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Bears | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…2baabacked Bears | 62c | 20.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bears (-1.5)Packers won
- Emanuel Wilson: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- First Touchdown: Josh JacobsNo Touchdown won
- Packers vs. BearsBears won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H MoneylinePackers won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 45.5Under won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.