NFL · resolved market
Packers vs. Bears: O/U 45.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0e004e017a914fc88c14a33be0a56ca10aaa6eebddc1f92120ed1426bdc09a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Over | 47c | 40,000$18,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,799.99 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 53c | 20,000$10,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,400 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Over | 46c | 15,000$6,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,900 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 53c | 10,650$5,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,005.5 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Under | 54c | 9,634$5,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,431.76 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Under | 54c | 7,349$3,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,380.52 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 53c | 5,717$3,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,686.99 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Under | 55c | 3,500$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 3,433$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,571.86 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Over | 47c | 3,191$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Under | 53c | 2,532$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.93 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Over | 47c | 2,444$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.72 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 54c | 1,740$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.4 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 54c | 1,673$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.58 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c3…3242backed Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 53c | 1,038$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.86 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 52c | 958.33$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 53c | 935$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.45 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 53c | 934.47$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.2 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Over | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Under | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 527.59$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.97 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 507.5$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.38 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 53c | 425.53$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Over | 47c | 236$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.92 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 53c | 213.21$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.21 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Over | 46c | 205.09$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.34 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 183 | 36.1%66 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95bc…9f00backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…cfe5backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d86bbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 50c | 92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Under | 53c | 90.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Over | 23c | 86.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 51c | 77.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 45c | 62.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…02d1backed Over | 53c | 59.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 58.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9324…7e95backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Over | 53c | 37.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…d04cbacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc271…1bfdbacked Under | 54c | 25.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 53c | 22.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 45.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bears (-1.5)Packers won
- Emanuel Wilson: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- First Touchdown: Josh JacobsNo Touchdown won
- Packers vs. BearsBears won
- Packers vs. Bears: 1H MoneylinePackers won
- Packers vs. Bears: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.