UFC · resolved market
Hernandez vs. Pereira
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa88e36259e8a7129787e9c7002fc5e2de0a44e2fee4ece95d154b9610e9f23bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hernandezof Hernandez, Pereira
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2fa…1ca8backed Pereira | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Pereira | 44c | 5,983$2,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,637.48 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Hernandez | 57c | 5,683$3,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,457.65 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2447…6f43backed Pereira | 46c | 1,928$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Hernandez | 59c | 1,866$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.45 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…0e59backed Pereira | 43c | 1,666$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Hernandez | 56c | 1,584$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.83 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Hernandez | 58c | 1,488$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.64 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Hernandez | 55c | 1,375$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.87 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…b625backed Pereira | 43c | 1,279$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…5801backed Hernandez | 64c | 1,267$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6e…bbe5backed Hernandez | 57c | 1,247$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Pereira | 44c | 1,147$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Pereira | 47c | 1,141$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.05 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…218ebacked Hernandez | 56c | 1,139$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…4319backed Hernandez | 57c | 1,016$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…7089backed Pereira | 30c | 1,011$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Hernandez | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.07 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pereira | 43c | 984.02$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.13 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Pereira | 10c | 945$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.09 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…4d70backed Pereira | 43c | 859.92$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4a…da29backed Pereira | 45c | 731.48$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd060…d9bebacked Hernandez | 58c | 557.29$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200a…d498backed Hernandez | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Pereira | 45c | 497.24$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.84 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Pereira | 47c | 480.15$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.87 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked Pereira | 19c | 480$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf384…7f2dbacked Hernandez | 58c | 381.18$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Pereira | 6c | 371.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…bd78backed Pereira | 44c | 300$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.67 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Hernandez | 56c | 299.98$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db1…8e4ebacked Pereira | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x242f…286ebacked Hernandez | 62c | 215.14$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…15b5backed Pereira | 47c | 213.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…f7a7backed Pereira | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb008…c4f7backed Hernandez | 54c | 190.6$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e00…a3e7backed Hernandez | 57c | 186.06$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5b…077fbacked Pereira | 43c | 173.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb18…198cbacked Hernandez | 60c | 168.43$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85fc…f80abacked Pereira | 47c | 162.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7297…e44dbacked Pereira | 43c | 162.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc103…1138backed Pereira | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Hernandez | 60c | 148.94$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcd…8c5dbacked Pereira | 44c | 140$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee0…a44cbacked Hernandez | 57c | 113.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Pereira | 43c | 111.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff5…89dbbacked Pereira | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f6…342dbacked Pereira | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…6d3bbacked Pereira | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x211a…9613backed Pereira | 48c | 98.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c32…4958backed Hernandez | 56c | 91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…cfaabacked Hernandez | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…a346backed Pereira | 45c | 77.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…c5b2backed Pereira | 47c | 77.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Pereira | 44c | 67.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1156…f8adbacked Pereira | 43c | 64.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…fbbcbacked Pereira | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…b353backed Pereira | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cd…a607backed Hernandez | 59c | 54.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…6e0ebacked Pereira | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Hernandez | 58c | 51.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed Hernandez | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Hernandez | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…3792backed Hernandez | 56c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5be…8728backed Pereira | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…9f53backed Pereira | 44c | 45.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3299…2d7bbacked Pereira | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3178…277dbacked Pereira | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 44cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe754…760bbacked Pereira | 48c | 35.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Hernandez | 58c | 34.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…4867backed Pereira | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e1…e988backed Pereira | 46c | 30.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed Pereira | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…5d6ebacked Pereira | 42c | 28.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa248…19d9backed Pereira | 48c | 25.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…6dbebacked Hernandez | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…c137backed Pereira | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Hernandez | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7235…501bbacked Hernandez | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…d049backed Hernandez | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hernandez vs. Pereirathis page
- Elkins vs. PinedaElkins won
- Font vs. PhillipsFont won
- Johnson vs. SumudaerjiJohnson won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.