UFC · resolved market
Font vs. Phillips
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02fec41996f68f853a171ecdb63fd4fae327f6eb45c9e660f30488e146c90b5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fontof Font, Phillips
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Font | 19c | 5,097$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,153.95 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Font | 17c | 3,406$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,826.91 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Phillips | 79c | 3,188$2,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,508.12 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Phillips | 25c | 1,100$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Phillips | 3c | 981.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Phillips | 23c | 737.59$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.68 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b03…ac9bbacked Font | 20c | 710.33$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…245ebacked Phillips | 3c | 700$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Font | 21c | 496.69$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.65 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Phillips | 24c | 398$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.53 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked Font | 18c | 381.72$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.01 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc103…1138backed Phillips | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Phillips | 6c | 192$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…9f53backed Font | 19c | 191.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Font | 77c | 186.73$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85fc…f80abacked Font | 20c | 129.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Font | 18c | 127.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…4d70backed Phillips | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Font | 17c | 99.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Phillips | 78c | 66.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…4867backed Font | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…1983backed Font | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bf…14cfbacked Phillips | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Phillips | 78c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed Phillips | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Font vs. Phillipsthis page
- Elkins vs. PinedaElkins won
- Hernandez vs. PereiraHernandez won
- Johnson vs. SumudaerjiJohnson won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.