UFC · resolved market
Elkins vs. Pineda
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ae62eef8706aba4c2de05808b5659cd5c54ea7d276a2172418b68dc338b4c09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Elkinsof Elkins, Pineda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Pineda | 1c | 47,599$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Elkins | 57c | 3,288$1,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,417.28 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Pineda | 42c | 2,776$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.05 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Pineda | 42c | 1,404$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.19 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Pineda | 43c | 1,000$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ce…a7e9backed Pineda | 50c | 669.33$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb294…79d7backed Elkins | 50c | 664.33$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Elkins | 55c | 599.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.99 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d6…aaddbacked Pineda | 50c | 389.36$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf124…b53abacked Elkins | 50c | 389.36$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Elkins | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…c9fabacked Pineda | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db1…8e4ebacked Elkins | 63c | 158.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked Elkins | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.0wins | +0.36per pick | 55cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Elkins | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Elkins | 56c | 81.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Pineda | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Elkins | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Pineda | 47c | 44.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…c137backed Pineda | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…503ebacked Elkins | 61c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60af…0ee9backed Elkins | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Pineda | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2147…6b28backed Pineda | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…6dbebacked Elkins | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Elkins vs. Pinedathis page
- Font vs. PhillipsFont won
- Hernandez vs. PereiraHernandez won
- Johnson vs. SumudaerjiJohnson won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.