UFC · resolved market
Johnson vs. Sumudaerji
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80ab39f1741a7d134c8a7dbc23b1099e4b75bf276ebbea2390e59bc742f84032
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Johnsonof Johnson, Sumudaerji
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Sumudaerji | 22c | 6,226$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.39 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Sumudaerji | 30c | 5,339$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608.08 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Johnson | 69c | 2,743$1,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.45 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Johnson | 68c | 2,129$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.12 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Sumudaerji | 35c | 2,108$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.65 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Johnson | 78c | 1,606$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.25 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Johnson | 76c | 1,439$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.3 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Johnson | 69c | 1,251$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.56 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Johnson | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Sumudaerji | 32c | 625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc103…1138backed Sumudaerji | 21c | 446.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Sumudaerji | 7c | 361.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…15b5backed Johnson | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db1…8e4ebacked Johnson | 71c | 211.72$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.72 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Johnson | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1156…f8adbacked Johnson | 70c | 185.71$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2e…a8abbacked Johnson | 68c | 180$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffc…c932backed Sumudaerji | 32c | 116$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…61b3backed Johnson | 69c | 114.56$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…9f53backed Sumudaerji | 34c | 102.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Johnson | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb628…95c0backed Sumudaerji | 37c | 81.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0801…35cbbacked Johnson | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…503ebacked Johnson | 78c | 66.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf65f…a8afbacked Sumudaerji | 32c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85fc…f80abacked Johnson | 72c | 43.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…a22cbacked Johnson | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Johnson | 69c | 33.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…6dbebacked Johnson | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Johnson | 71c | 24.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…36bebacked Johnson | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Johnson vs. Sumudaerjithis page
- Elkins vs. PinedaElkins won
- Font vs. PhillipsFont won
- Hernandez vs. PereiraHernandez won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.