TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Commanders vs. Eagles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Commandersof Commanders, Eagles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,025,688
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,388,544

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,025,688 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 688 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Eagles63c475,674$297,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297,327.6230043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Commanders38c289,605$111,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178,510.483767.6%25 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Commanders37c152,285$56,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,068.794955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Commanders37c100,000$37,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,0005154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Eagles64c59,159$38,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,054.4112144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Commanders43c57,996$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,995.812528%7 W · 18 L-6.3wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-46.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Commanders45c46,799$21,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,543.6375852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Eagles62c46,686$29,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,107.6353348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Eagles62c40,000$24,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,800650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Eagles37c33,368$12,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,501.8720026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Eagles48c32,055$15,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,416.0411643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Eagles58c31,694$18,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,399.9412748%61 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Commanders38c27,692$10,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,290.3211544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Eagles60c26,606$15,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,863.5316955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Eagles63c25,407$16,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,099.0147348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Commanders34c23,362$8,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,305.0119152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Eagles62c22,468$13,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,872.6918650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Commanders35c22,330$7,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,544.61450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Eagles66c21,859$14,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,426.7786547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Commanders34c20,445$6,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,493.5216836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Commanders37c20,000$7,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,70083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Commanders35c20,000$6,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,058.173548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Commanders37c18,559$6,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,707.6116545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Commanders40c17,999$7,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,729.31060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+47.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Eagles53c17,571$9,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,235.577255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x026b…bb31backed Eagles54c17,342$9,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,374.77616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.41per pick57cpaid-75.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc29e…a2cabacked Eagles63c15,867$9,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,9962161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked Eagles62c15,000$9,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,3004452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Eagles66c14,376$9,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,472.859447.9%45 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Eagles51c12,617$6,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,440.6350242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Commanders36c12,441$4,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,923.0221254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Eagles64c11,603$7,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,4262944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Commanders42c11,393$4,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,594.6456852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Commanders40c10,885$4,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,520.351855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8366…21ebbacked Commanders52c10,155$5,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,921.21258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Eagles44c10,041$4,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,436.8731543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Eagles62c10,000$6,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,2001428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-47.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Commanders37c10,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,30024056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Eagles62c10,000$6,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,2003548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Eagles62c9,929$6,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,182.2654451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Commanders41c9,480$3,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,593.29442.6%40 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Commanders34c9,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,94026547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49d1…2a44backed Eagles48c9,000$4,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3201747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0026…1ed5backed Eagles72c8,334$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0004969.4%34 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x83fa…f554backed Eagles65c8,063$5,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,265.14742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Commanders35c8,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2008351.8%43 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Eagles6c7,860$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.3623244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Commanders34c7,777$2,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,166.132330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Eagles64c7,746$4,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,980.471,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Commanders37c7,500$2,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,724.9716860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Commanders54c7,406$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,406.3610648.1%51 W · 55 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Eagles25c7,377$1,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,821.7520757.5%119 W · 88 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Commanders45c6,861$3,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,750.0773651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Eagles63c6,856$4,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,319.0331854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf70…5e92backed Eagles65c6,515$4,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2351353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+45.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed Commanders57c6,289$3,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,695.463565.7%23 W · 12 L+5.2wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+29.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked Eagles65c6,154$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0003655.6%20 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+40.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x07fc…7ac6backed Eagles63c6,000$3,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,780425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb87b…3626backed Eagles67c6,000$4,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,017.088035%28 W · 52 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Commanders53c5,690$3,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,677.6811254.5%61 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f5c…7335backed Eagles66c5,327$3,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,51610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5121…b890backed Commanders34c5,315$1,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,508.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeff8…68ebbacked Eagles62c5,011$3,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,106.95944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19be…2541backed Eagles66c5,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,300450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe021…e299backed Commanders34c5,000$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,299.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+77.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Eagles61c4,905$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-38.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5773…dc71backed Eagles38c4,765$1,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,787.59650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x816b…d69dbacked Commanders54c4,701$2,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,159.24955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Commanders38c4,570$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,819.884240.5%17 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76f…1eacbacked Commanders74c4,136$3,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.382070%14 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+60.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x94d9…870ebacked Eagles63c3,968$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5002347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Eagles64c3,953$2,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,515.0114641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Eagles59c3,905$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,319.5819235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Commanders52c3,848$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,847.721850%9 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb789…706fbacked Commanders39c3,846$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,346.152347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x881b…9893backed Eagles8c3,843$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cc5…5fcbbacked Eagles57c3,786$2,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,142.26547.7%31 W · 34 L+7.2wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+40.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Eagles47c3,501$1,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,635.7231056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Eagles65c3,500$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2803246.9%15 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Eagles62c3,500$2,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1702152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3214…63d6backed Eagles70c3,277$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3008736.8%32 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Commanders44c3,244$1,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,827.083847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Eagles71c3,085$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,189.6327348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd277…73febacked Eagles65c3,077$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+24.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Commanders35c3,000$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,95812250%61 W · 61 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Eagles61c3,000$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,83015252.6%80 W · 72 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21a3…e375backed Eagles66c2,900$1,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,915771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Commanders40c2,843$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,718.548737.9%33 W · 54 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Commanders51c2,800$1,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3721163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+29.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9483…39b2backed Eagles57c2,602$1,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.961947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-25.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b34…294cbacked Eagles66c2,590$1,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,718.65742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Commanders39c2,564$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,564.17549.3%37 W · 38 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0b1…faebbacked Commanders31c2,556$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.397737.7%29 W · 48 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Eagles1c2,527$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.93980%0 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Commanders30c2,514$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.6228447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f19…f012backed Eagles64c2,512$1,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,607.91771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+31%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Commanders37c2,500$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,57519240.1%77 W · 115 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Eagles56c2,500$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,39526650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Eagles70c2,488$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,748.023271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+39.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Eagles1c2,444$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.444311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.