NFL · resolved market
Spread: Eagles (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe52a629da08eb63d049ee11bdf6c90a9ecaa3d3704c3928e2d926cc0bcd3c991
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Commandersof Eagles, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Commanders | 61c | 8,427$5,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,286.53 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Eagles | 39c | 7,100$2,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,769.17 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Commanders | 72c | 2,856$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.84 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Eagles | 28c | 1,846$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.88 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0a…4a63backed Eagles | 36c | 1,761$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Commanders | 64c | 1,484$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.29 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Eagles | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Eagles | 39c | 495$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.05 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Eagles | 39c | 462$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.18 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Eagles | 39c | 364.57$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.18 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Eagles | 43c | 96.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Commanders | 80c | 86.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Eagles | 28c | 85.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Eagles | 28c | 84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4626…576dbacked Eagles | 36c | 82.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Eagles | 20c | 73.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Commanders | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Commanders | 65c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Commanders | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Eagles | 23c | 53.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Eagles | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Commanders | 53c | 26.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Commanders | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…0650backed Commanders | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Eagles (-8.5)this page
- Commanders vs. EaglesCommanders won
- Commanders vs. Eagles: 1H MoneylineCommanders won
- Commanders vs. Eagles: O/U 38.5Over won
- Commanders vs. Eagles: O/U 39.5Over won
- Commanders vs. Eagles: O/U 40.5Over won
- Commanders vs. Eagles: O/U 41.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Eagles: O/U 42.5Under won
- Spread: Eagles (-3.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Eagles (-4.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Eagles (-7.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Eagles (-9.5)Commanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.