NFL · resolved market
Spread: Eagles (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb5b48fe0db8a91092915f03696630c3d565cf25d134915e511e64c9d40372c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Commandersof Eagles, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Commanders | 69c | 10,005$6,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,071.13 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Eagles | 46c | 3,736$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.77 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…0841backed Eagles | 32c | 3,431$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Commanders | 51c | 3,334$1,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.7 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Eagles | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Commanders | 53c | 2,466$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.71 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Commanders | 59c | 2,406$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.64 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Eagles | 31c | 2,392$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.11 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Eagles | 31c | 2,222$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.71 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0a…4a63backed Eagles | 38c | 1,957$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.53 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Commanders | 61c | 1,349$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.11 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Commanders | 57c | 1,272$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.93 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Eagles | 30c | 1,248$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.4 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Eagles | 40c | 997$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.66 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Eagles | 41c | 969.92$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.65 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Eagles | 53c | 430$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.9 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Commanders | 47c | 370.44$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.33 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Eagles | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Commanders | 55c | 299.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Eagles | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Commanders | 74c | 205$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Eagles | 52c | 183.22$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.27 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Eagles | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Commanders | 69c | 101.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Eagles | 37c | 101$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Eagles | 41c | 97.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d3…17adbacked Eagles | 39c | 89.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Eagles | 42c | 80.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Commanders | 61c | 80.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Eagles | 41c | 77.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Eagles | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f19…e03ebacked Eagles | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Commanders | 53c | 63.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Eagles | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Commanders | 47c | 59.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Commanders | 63c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036a…4c9abacked Eagles | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Commanders | 56c | 50.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Eagles | 40c | 36.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa221…5b1fbacked Eagles | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Commanders | 48c | 31.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…0650backed Eagles | 42c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a2…12b2backed Commanders | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Commanders | 56c | 18.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…382bbacked Commanders | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Eagles (-7.5)this page
- Commanders vs. EaglesCommanders won
- Commanders vs. Eagles: 1H MoneylineCommanders won
- Commanders vs. Eagles: O/U 38.5Over won
- Commanders vs. Eagles: O/U 39.5Over won
- Commanders vs. Eagles: O/U 40.5Over won
- Commanders vs. Eagles: O/U 41.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Eagles: O/U 42.5Under won
- Spread: Eagles (-3.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Eagles (-4.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Eagles (-8.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Eagles (-9.5)Commanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.