Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Stancil wins Minnesota House Democratic Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18d4d72d35bd90c4e958bf872c514682651b24badb966ba65fba979ed718db07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 13c | 15,189$2,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,038.8 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 3c | 13,983$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 0c | 11,358$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0a…6fc4backed Yes | 36c | 4,092$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Yes | 15c | 2,248$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb38…33ebbacked No | 76c | 1,952$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed Yes | 5c | 1,270$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed No | 61c | 1,246$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.27 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 56c | 1,048$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.12 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84de…b018backed No | 67c | 953.79$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked Yes | 36c | 710.01$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.11 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…a3aabacked No | 70c | 686.95$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked No | 64c | 548.35$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff92…f9b5backed No | 53c | 541.77$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…caa7backed No | 60c | 476.48$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.18 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked No | 67c | 432$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Yes | 37c | 403.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…6565backed Yes | 34c | 400$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…17cfbacked Yes | 6c | 367.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked No | 66c | 325$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f1…ff97backed Yes | 33c | 286.69$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked Yes | 31c | 244.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 52c | 220$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed Yes | 30c | 214.73$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 68c | 206.02$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02d0…1784backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f2…f52cbacked Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2774…fce4backed No | 77c | 192$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…0899backed No | 65c | 169.09$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec3…53a1backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…c0f8backed No | 60c | 115$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b65…0704backed No | 60c | 100.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…c3b4backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df9…2c03backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b9c6backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb2…c39fbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…de2abacked Yes | 27c | 97.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838e…b9c2backed Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 75c | 71.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b27…ed84backed No | 67c | 70.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…b38fbacked Yes | 44c | 68.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 18c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e2…dfb2backed No | 70c | 62.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 68c | 59.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 35c | 50.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8768…dd9bbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…20a3backed Yes | 29c | 49.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9002…7efebacked Yes | 53c | 48.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb7…9732backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7875…c183backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4173…79c0backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed No | 72c | 37.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20df…78b4backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…7680backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edb…b3acbacked No | 70c | 27.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1a…3945backed No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…e978backed No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3995…5facbacked No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…5d7ebacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…73ccbacked No | 67c | 23.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c84…88dabacked No | 60c | 20.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb849…fda3backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…1605backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.