Stocks · resolved market
Will Trump sell shares of DJT in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb412d18bf3a1887e13ad665f7fa22db84b1d97b3ac3ef422b8eba3e8a5985905
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $143,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 4c | 27,987$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 5c | 6,285$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.9 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf5…40e4backed Yes | 3c | 5,274$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Yes | 6c | 5,000$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…a4a6backed Yes | 28c | 3,755$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 9c | 3,621$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 6c | 3,346$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdf…8cb7backed Yes | 4c | 3,058$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 10c | 2,357$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,243$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 2,134$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.81 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 27c | 2,129$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…acb7backed No | 72c | 1,998$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 4c | 1,810$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…676abacked Yes | 23c | 1,722$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 5c | 1,719$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…52ccbacked No | 75c | 1,622$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 4c | 1,467$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…83debacked Yes | 7c | 1,449$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 20c | 1,423$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3921…0cf4backed Yes | 27c | 1,004$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f1…ff97backed Yes | 29c | 1,000$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…750bbacked No | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed No | 74c | 689.01$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d0…ea2cbacked Yes | 8c | 574$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 8c | 520$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315b…6f77backed Yes | 6c | 487.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7957…cfa3backed Yes | 4c | 478.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Yes | 6c | 476.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed No | 71c | 421.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 8c | 414.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…1ccebacked Yes | 8c | 400$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b52…47ccbacked Yes | 8c | 400$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked No | 71c | 357$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed No | 71c | 352.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Yes | 30c | 348.78$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7f…6f30backed Yes | 5c | 306.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…99a4backed Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…d5c5backed No | 73c | 288.35$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4d…1f07backed Yes | 28c | 242.86$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e1…6e30backed Yes | 7c | 222$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 71c | 222$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c1…1fb6backed Yes | 29c | 222$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…5924backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 79c | 191.84$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d9…3239backed Yes | 15c | 189.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…f6d8backed Yes | 19c | 170.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 170.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 43c | 143.05$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…3247backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 23c | 132$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e3…b7eabacked Yes | 9c | 110$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…8ef1backed Yes | 15c | 101.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked No | 69c | 97.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed No | 75c | 85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf631…e20fbacked No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 69c | 78.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 62c | 58.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f3…9cadbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf079…2ba6backed No | 72c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ed…82e5backed No | 80c | 41.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…196dbacked Yes | 27c | 39.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed No | 70c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed No | 69c | 36.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…cd00backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb955…32e6backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed No | 70c | 28.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…eef4backed No | 72c | 27.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1058…ab2abacked No | 76c | 26.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…3b80backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ded…462bbacked No | 71c | 19.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.