Movies · resolved market
Will "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 9m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x327783e0c4c9b8ab988d3ae183d5aeb40c9051c9a08612f6abe0e88c4317b590
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 11c | 4,411$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.14 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 4,396$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.87 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 41c | 2,595$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.92 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | +21.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 4c | 2,209$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,209$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.45 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…1b6cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,018$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.5 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 20c | 1,926$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.24 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 12c | 1,433$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 63c | 1,385$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.68 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 13c | 1,040$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.42 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 67c | 978.59$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.88 | 509 | 33.2%169 W · 340 L | -31.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b56…80ddbacked Yes | 29c | 939.15$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 28c | 880.77$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.22 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 34c | 749.8$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.61 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed Yes | 25c | 715.4$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3c…b62abacked Yes | 17c | 684.57$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 602.57$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 1,415 | 8%113 W · 1,302 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 69c | 569.7$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.32 | 334 | 38.9%130 W · 204 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed Yes | 11c | 505.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…404abacked Yes | 10c | 434.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…9a29backed Yes | 12c | 429.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 13c | 400$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 148 | 27.7%41 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 12c | 363.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…20f3backed Yes | 23c | 354.36$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe012…d14bbacked Yes | 39c | 307.75$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 6c | 292.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 31c | 281.69$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 305 | 23%70 W · 235 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 28c | 242.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.24 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Yes | 16c | 231.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 69c | 220$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.51 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…3ff1backed Yes | 33c | 215.67$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked Yes | 76c | 210$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.2 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61eb…05fbbacked Yes | 24c | 200.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 78c | 141.23$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +19.6wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 75c | 132.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…2497backed Yes | 11c | 130.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf90f…9d52backed Yes | 52c | 130.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4f…e58cbacked Yes | 15c | 120.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 480 | 28.5%137 W · 343 L | -33.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 30c | 99.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked No | 68c | 97.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…c078backed Yes | 21c | 97.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…8bdebacked No | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…ac9bbacked Yes | 17c | 71.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 885 | 33.6%297 W · 588 L | -76.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce3b…31e7backed Yes | 28c | 70.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 64c | 52.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8848…0becbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8f…3c8abacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cef…af02backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…c914backed Yes | 25c | 47.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 69c | 15.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 9m?this page
- Will "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?No won
- Will "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?Yes won
- Will "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 7m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.