Movies · resolved market
Will "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x429b482df5c03d00017e6d27cc4ec7c4b58f5e27478679a4b5ecd9094e57fc1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 12c | 2,633$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.78 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked No | 11c | 2,500$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.61 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 11c | 2,412$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.9 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 74c | 1,850$1,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.25 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 4c | 1,832$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed No | 11c | 1,490$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.51 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 68c | 1,360$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.27 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 54c | 632.49$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.76 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 18c | 399.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 26c | 373$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.28 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 30c | 356.9$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.17 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 74c | 298.1$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 289.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 10c | 241$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.9 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 227.4$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.82 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 218$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 18c | 209.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 61c | 201.64$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.64 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 12c | 198.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.87 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 64c | 113.63$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 74cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?this page
- Will "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?No won
- Will "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 9m?No won
- Will "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 7m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.