TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,940
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,708

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,940 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x682d…4cd6backed No12c2,633$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.7832814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b9b…a65ebacked No11c2,500$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.61185.6%1 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick24cpaid-92.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked No11c2,412$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.91214.1%5 W · 116 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes74c1,850$1,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.2515059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked No4c1,832$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.142917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-69.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc745…b952backed No11c1,490$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.512729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes68c1,360$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.2732739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No54c632.49$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.7650633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed No18c399.98$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes26c373$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.2829642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes30c356.9$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.1728524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes74c298.1$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.229735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No12c289.01$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3667232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes10c241$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.917041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No79c227.4$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.8247328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No16c218$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.581,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked No18c209.36$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.28825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x520d…babebacked Yes61c201.64$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.6411352.2%59 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes12c198.23$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.8726041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes64c113.63$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.352313%3 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-55.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-76.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes79c20.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.251485.7%12 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick74cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.