Movies · resolved market
Will "Regretting You" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 9m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf35fb4b7a503c165e1e42245a53cb48f887bc955c8e64ce7f5b27f49f2ce7248
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 25c | 4,402$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.42 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 69c | 3,346$2,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.12 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 80c | 2,600$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.94 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 33c | 2,080$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.11 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes | 67c | 1,174$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.01 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 71c | 973.17$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.7 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked No | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf90f…9d52backed No | 21c | 387.32$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked No | 17c | 372.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 15c | 284.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b56…80ddbacked No | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 30c | 227.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 30c | 210.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed No | 29c | 204$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 9c | 159.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 9c | 157.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 55c | 104.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 61c | 103$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 13c | 79.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…c078backed Yes | 56c | 71.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked No | 37c | 54.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed No | 45c | 51.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4f…e58cbacked Yes | 63c | 47.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…8bdebacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Regretting You" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 9m?this page
- Will "Regretting You" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?No won
- Will "Regretting You" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?No won
- Will "Regretting You" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 7m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.