Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump remove tariff on China before March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2314c6c3071370adef3817b996cc5553f19a9f2dbc6743dfd80f87977beb53cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 6c | 9,305$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.72 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 9c | 7,176$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.5 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 6c | 5,522$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.36 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 7c | 4,423$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.63 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 3,836$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.65 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.56 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 1,865$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.1 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 8c | 1,681$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.83 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5edd…8309backed Yes | 7c | 1,525$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 4c | 1,242$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 8c | 1,155$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…b22bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Yes | 7c | 999.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 6c | 982.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…6d29backed Yes | 3c | 918$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 869$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 7c | 699.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 393.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 3c | 361.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Yes | 5c | 300.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5c…3cfdbacked Yes | 6c | 172.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…aeebbacked Yes | 9c | 165.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed83…d308backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018d…7f0abacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.