Movies · resolved market
Will "Black Phone 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 20m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb1ea7b129caa87309ee19ad7cab4802f167854ab876c98404789a7cb8ec9838
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 7,220$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 26c | 6,214$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608.59 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,101$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.88 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…1b6cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,049$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 65c | 3,885$2,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378.87 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 36c | 3,160$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.4 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 1c | 3,127$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,726$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.9 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 9c | 1,648$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,288$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 1c | 1,113$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 66c | 887.72$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.82 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 27c | 477.07$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 69c | 399.68$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.27 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf90f…9d52backed Yes | 26c | 324.39$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 27c | 234.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 8c | 182.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf65…178abacked Yes | 23c | 106.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…1ebdbacked Yes | 41c | 105.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked No | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff1…3042backed No | 25c | 46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +355.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 43.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked No | 50c | 34.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…47d4backed No | 69c | 17.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…8ad5backed No | 78c | 15.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Black Phone 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 20m?this page
- Will "Black Phone 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 28m?Yes won
- Will "Black Phone 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 28m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.