Movies · resolved market
Will "Black Phone 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 28m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3898cc4194b7eabe78eed3e18ace5ad87df77aaefd576ebaff64c66105289496
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes | 11c | 9,838$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.32 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,231$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.53 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 3,188$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 79c | 3,121$2,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.43 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 11c | 3,108$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.86 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,387$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,217$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,130$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.3 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.91 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,420$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…1b6cbacked Yes | 2c | 932.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 5c | 910.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 787.73$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.19 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 3c | 744.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 10c | 500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…3de9backed Yes | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf90f…9d52backed Yes | 5c | 353.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 338.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked No | 78c | 250$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 15c | 175.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked No | 75c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 21c | 64.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 46c | 50.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Black Phone 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 28m?this page
- Will "Black Phone 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 28m?Yes won
- Will "Black Phone 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 20m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.