Movies · resolved market
Will "Black Phone 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 26m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc90649ab0eb5a647912dd4c80ab6c61ee9bd2c28c43886cd49a75ad0f8d61bfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 3c | 37,199$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.35 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 3c | 2,411$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 60c | 1,892$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.31 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,792$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.08 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 1,183$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.66 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 58c | 1,167$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.74 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked No | 54c | 1,000$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.56 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 38c | 906.14$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.18 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 31c | 849.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.5 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 53c | 603.17$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.51 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 65c | 499.77$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.6 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 46c | 399.98$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 69c | 336$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed No | 36c | 299$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.75 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8f…3c8abacked Yes | 80c | 200.64$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 75c | 199$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 66c | 184.15$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.3 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…5ffcbacked No | 74c | 181.03$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 43c | 160$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 28c | 142.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 29c | 114.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 40c | 110$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 28c | 109.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.29 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 32c | 105$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 30c | 105$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…3533backed No | 70c | 97.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed No | 60c | 40.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…f858backed Yes | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…ea78backed Yes | 44c | 23.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a7…4fdfbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Black Phone 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 26m?this page
- Will "Black Phone 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?No won
- Will "Black Phone 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?No won
- Will "Black Phone 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 20m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.