Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk tweet more August 14 than day before?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x476a55fb433480fc14500957249f2f3ede3d430482e0475732cb066b9fce9f20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe07…d839backed No | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 53c | 433.34$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.84 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 428.46$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.07 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 33c | 365.3$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.27 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 67c | 263.47$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.53 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 33c | 244.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.33 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…166bbacked Yes | 59c | 230$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked No | 29c | 147$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked No | 17c | 125$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked No | 30c | 117.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 33c | 100.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed No | 32c | 89.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 25c | 73.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74ad…92abbacked Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 48c | 69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 52c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc193…872dbacked No | 22c | 55.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 73c | 55.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 74c | 26.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x474e…441fbacked Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…c260backed Yes | 69c | 18.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.