TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hornets vs. Pacers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pacersof Hornets, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,826,752
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,118,987

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,826,752 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,641 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3987…259ebacked Pacers48c1,024,914$488,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536,215.568022.5%18 W · 62 L-10.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Hornets53c300,000$157,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157,662.8220253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Hornets52c250,000$130,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130,0006352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Pacers46c234,262$107,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126,501.2215443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed Hornets54c186,309$100,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,607.0125248.4%122 W · 130 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Hornets45c142,949$64,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,266.411,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0140…9028backed Hornets53c95,000$50,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,4504544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Hornets54c92,525$49,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,948.242,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Pacers46c90,113$41,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,801.362,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Hornets52c85,000$44,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,35024650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Hornets54c81,857$44,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,127.632,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hornets22c58,333$12,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,599.784,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddd…39eebacked Hornets55c36,760$20,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,174.822542.2%95 W · 130 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Hornets52c35,230$18,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,319.64452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Pacers57c34,027$19,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,787.0148448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Hornets52c29,300$15,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,27937557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Pacers79c27,011$21,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,701.2859646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Pacers47c25,843$12,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,696.9417354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Pacers46c24,657$11,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,328.8227251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hornets52c22,193$11,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,608.639,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Hornets5c21,045$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.081,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked Hornets52c20,000$10,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,4002142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-20.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Hornets54c18,519$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Hornets0c16,875$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.121,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Hornets27c16,320$4,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,471.441,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Hornets54c15,851$8,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,555.7244648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Pacers46c13,545$6,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,314.371,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Pacers47c13,487$6,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,147.9626544.9%119 W · 146 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Hornets11c12,367$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.6650838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Hornets24c11,909$2,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,848.012,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Hornets53c11,415$6,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,056.5116251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Hornets4c11,013$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.941,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Hornets15c10,439$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.4727917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Hornets1c10,125$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.758820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c52…ff83backed Hornets0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105642.9%24 W · 32 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Hornets16c10,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60034645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Hornets53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,30012334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Hornets1c9,925$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.857211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Pacers46c9,894$4,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,342.497946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1a4…e9adbacked Hornets52c8,800$4,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,611.24535.6%16 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Hornets36c8,766$3,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,129.7747748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Hornets54c8,750$4,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,681.9662351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Pacers61c8,430$5,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,247.6185344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hornets53c8,000$4,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2601,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Pacers46c6,512$2,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,516.4710144.6%45 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Hornets54c6,481$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5002466.7%16 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Hornets1c6,300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.557502%15 W · 735 L-3.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1013…87d5backed Hornets53c5,660$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0008863.6%56 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Pacers47c5,578$2,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,982.4744459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5e…3ff4backed Pacers47c5,453$2,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,890.092100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick44cpaid+131.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Hornets1c5,001$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.368783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Pacers46c5,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,70080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x063a…eb4bbacked Hornets53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,65030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Hornets19c5,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9501,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Hornets30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Hornets13c4,979$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.343,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Pacers45c4,512$2,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,481.8313743.8%60 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Hornets42c4,500$1,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,87518047.8%86 W · 94 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f22…61eabacked Hornets54c4,500$2,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,430520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-70.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Pacers47c4,385$2,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,324.115947.5%28 W · 31 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x580d…8c26backed Hornets54c4,005$2,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,162.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ec…6933backed Hornets53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1202445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Hornets53c4,000$2,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1309649%47 W · 49 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f99…9546backed Pacers46c4,000$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,159.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Hornets15c4,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.991,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdefe…bdb8backed Pacers46c4,000$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,179.944725.5%12 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2274…15b9backed Hornets53c3,926$2,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,080.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Pacers56c3,916$2,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,729.4966744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Hornets7c3,800$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25842640.4%172 W · 254 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ff3…9331backed Hornets55c3,727$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae9…045ebacked Pacers47c3,550$1,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,881.54100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+95.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Pacers46c3,500$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,89026247.7%125 W · 137 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x19fd…5838backed Hornets53c3,328$1,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,757.735925.4%15 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Hornets0c3,285$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.421,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bcd…0aa5backed Hornets44c3,170$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9416…991bbacked Hornets54c3,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,620540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc631…9655backed Hornets1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302524%6 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Pacers47c2,999$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.4715841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Hornets53c2,999$1,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.4719150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hornets23c2,992$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.735,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Hornets14c2,947$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.0722243.7%97 W · 125 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Pacers47c2,938$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,570.4524330.9%75 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Pacers46c2,896$1,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,558.051,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Pacers46c2,877$1,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.542,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Hornets28c2,850$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.2626038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Hornets32c2,836$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.462,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Hornets50c2,808$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,403.8525753.7%138 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc23b…24f9backed Hornets55c2,800$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5404951%25 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Pacers79c2,720$2,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.0648046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x429b…0688backed Pacers46c2,617$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4133450%17 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5e0…72c5backed Hornets30c2,594$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Pacers48c2,558$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.7362541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Hornets54c2,500$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35073649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Pacers46c2,470$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.1254747.5%260 W · 287 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe91…7b3dbacked Hornets55c2,455$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35019144.5%85 W · 106 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers47c2,426$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,293.296,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Pacers46c2,181$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.6695049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd95…5301backed Hornets54c2,174$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17450%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x85c0…22e8backed Pacers47c2,174$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.25450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe427…4c44backed Hornets14c2,124$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008951.7%46 W · 43 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.