NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Pacers: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b8196e72cac0f112a7829b50d6fa11653c6dbe1056f1924ed1c2639ccb63f71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Hornets, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers | 79c | 2,216$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.59 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Hornets | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pacers | 46c | 379.93$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.16 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Hornets | 54c | 324.93$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.46 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…6ae0backed Hornets | 49c | 141.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Pacers | 46c | 126$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Pacers | 46c | 112$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Hornets | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Hornets | 54c | 89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed Hornets | 54c | 66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Hornets | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Pacers | 46c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Hornets | 54c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Hornets | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc58…1dffbacked Pacers | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Pacers: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Pacers (-0.5)Pacers won
- Hornets vs. PacersPacers won
- Hornets vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Pacers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Spread: Pacers (-1.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.