Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 300 or more times October 18-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfb24f344e299fc21bb733b8fa5f0280153d1fe79bc1d93b87a33dcfbecb6c77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f69…9c7abacked No | 23c | 2,704$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 18c | 2,029$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,653.45 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed No | 26c | 2,014$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.49 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5afa…cafbbacked No | 2c | 2,011$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 74c | 1,785$1,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.97 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 66c | 1,780$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.96 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 74c | 1,766$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.06 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 14c | 1,758$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.34 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 18c | 1,717$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.78 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 1,561$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.09 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 1,134$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.54 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4258…b969backed No | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 25c | 999.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b6…bb1cbacked No | 18c | 783.77$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 38c | 749.97$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 80c | 634.34$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.88 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7b…b2ccbacked Yes | 22c | 498.18$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.58 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7990…15efbacked No | 3c | 480.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +297.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 79c | 469.44$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e5…3a68backed Yes | 79c | 453.33$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 17c | 444$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.74 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 75c | 430$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…c5aebacked Yes | 75c | 421.33$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…376dbacked Yes | 26c | 377.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +277.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 16c | 367$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.28 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8c…183dbacked Yes | 46c | 365.98$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Yes | 75c | 365.14$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 16c | 360.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 27c | 328.92$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.92 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…0994backed Yes | 61c | 318.24$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 61c | 299.98$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.99 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa582…7289backed Yes | 37c | 270.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed Yes | 61c | 260.22$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.31 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…a7babacked Yes | 77c | 258.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…ecaebacked Yes | 38c | 251.45$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Yes | 75c | 250.24$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…6fb0backed Yes | 41c | 245.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.93 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x893e…6b47backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…3797backed Yes | 45c | 221.76$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.47 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…c212backed Yes | 18c | 216.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.44 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x828d…2e40backed Yes | 54c | 215.97$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ce…dd52backed No | 14c | 198.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8767…5afcbacked Yes | 8c | 164.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +146%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7f…4856backed Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8b…0c13backed Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe4…6db0backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 75c | 132.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…ad9ebacked Yes | 70c | 132.04$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777b…08b0backed Yes | 34c | 129.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…c812backed Yes | 70c | 122.93$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…5055backed Yes | 37c | 119.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 17c | 115.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.63 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…04a2backed Yes | 80c | 115$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 78c | 114.92$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9593…5432backed Yes | 55c | 114.17$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fa…df8abacked Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 35c | 102.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…156bbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…ff17backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 21c | 90.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…c8d0backed No | 66c | 88.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…635ebacked No | 18c | 88.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 64c | 86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…a5afbacked Yes | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c13…8983backed Yes | 73c | 77.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…aa18backed Yes | 45c | 67.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f34…b531backed Yes | 78c | 66.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 16c | 65.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…3fc8backed Yes | 69c | 64.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0083…02c7backed Yes | 77c | 63.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3b…2bf1backed No | 18c | 61.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f01…0f93backed No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…01f9backed Yes | 32c | 59.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +207.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfb…9768backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e69…3bfebacked Yes | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…3e38backed No | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…3d68backed No | 47c | 52.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7561…fe1bbacked Yes | 71c | 50.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1634…b32fbacked Yes | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4092…f145backed Yes | 54c | 40.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…d543backed Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…cd58backed Yes | 38c | 38.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e08…686fbacked Yes | 78c | 38.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7027…82a8backed Yes | 39c | 37.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad5…32f8backed Yes | 70c | 34.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f3…b6c8backed No | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 79c | 30.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…c1a5backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…5e0bbacked Yes | 38c | 29.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…4c58backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…391bbacked Yes | 77c | 25.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b29…8dbdbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…a2cdbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…5b80backed Yes | 75c | 16.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…53d3backed Yes | 77c | 14.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 300 or more times October 18-25?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100-124 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125-149 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.