Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times October 18-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddafc316d7f98d5850033d3ed02285d759799dad94ae2c1b233c53607a374730
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf6b…ea2fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,050$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f9…9f73backed Yes | 0c | 6,370$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ca…77eebacked Yes | 0c | 6,205$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…6055backed Yes | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2d…ac75backed Yes | 0c | 2,276$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 4c | 2,143$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 1,780$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.14 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…0e46backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 10c | 1,315$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.02 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,114$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5afa…cafbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,012$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4258…b969backed Yes | 2c | 823.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…c3eebacked Yes | 3c | 799.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 17c | 754.91$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.12 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc8…35aebacked Yes | 15c | 699.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0096…db7bbacked Yes | 5c | 606$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8767…5afcbacked Yes | 9c | 556.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +146%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…a619backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 11c | 499.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 11c | 490.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…0cd4backed Yes | 18c | 432.3$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.15 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 18c | 421.81$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…c1fbbacked Yes | 3c | 419.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 8c | 412.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…6fb0backed Yes | 25c | 404.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…04a2backed Yes | 9c | 399.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…3797backed Yes | 18c | 351.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 10c | 340.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 13c | 322$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ad…845ebacked Yes | 14c | 280$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c13…8983backed Yes | 18c | 275.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed Yes | 4c | 259.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…ecaebacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…809bbacked Yes | 7c | 236.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…c212backed Yes | 13c | 233.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 9c | 218$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 9c | 215.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8685…43ffbacked Yes | 17c | 213.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4298…f07dbacked Yes | 24c | 212.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Yes | 8c | 210$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7b…b2ccbacked Yes | 16c | 184.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 22c | 161.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…b93cbacked Yes | 16c | 146.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e08…686fbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…6267backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 13c | 102.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x096d…e340backed Yes | 25c | 101.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7f…4856backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…c8d0backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 77c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…391bbacked Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a5…eb80backed Yes | 19c | 72.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a6…791cbacked Yes | 24c | 41.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…3d68backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times October 18-25?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100-124 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125-149 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300 or more times October 18-25?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.