NBA · resolved market

Nets vs. Cavaliers

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec180a426f65b9fadcbbe85a6258714b546d938887cf4afdb575925402da48e9

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Cavaliersof Nets, Cavaliers
Resolved: Nov 10, 2024, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $149,350
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $171,188

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,350 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Nets	16c	18,978$3,108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,108.33	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.31per pick	48cpaid	-73.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3fa3…dc66backed Cavaliers	63c	14,592$9,149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,442.7	69	43.5%30 W · 39 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc167…4056backed Nets	15c	9,986$1,546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,545.82	89	43.8%39 W · 50 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8767…a37fbacked Nets	15c	6,671$1,001 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000.6	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-4.3wins	-0.27per pick	45cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Cavaliers	36c	5,348$1,947 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,401.19	304	43.1%131 W · 173 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x986f…cac8backed Nets	15c	3,418$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512.64	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8b4…e0febacked Nets	13c	3,048$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.21	40	45%18 W · 22 L	+4.4wins	+0.11per pick	34cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x99c2…ef35backed Nets	52c	2,345$1,219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,219.4	142	33.1%47 W · 95 L	-7.8wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3f5…32aebacked Nets	14c	2,000$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.51	49	51%25 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x997b…801ebacked Nets	12c	1,977$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.23	461	31%143 W · 318 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2813…3177backed Nets	12c	1,086$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.39	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Nets	56c	1,000$556 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$556	84	39.3%33 W · 51 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ad1…6811backed Cavaliers	44c	1,000$443 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$557.27	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.22per pick	58cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Nets	14c	1,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	1,290	44%567 W · 723 L	+35.0wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf2…41b7backed Nets	55c	987.26$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.65	114	59.6%68 W · 46 L	+8.3wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f43…ed78backed Nets	26c	938.37$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.64	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.21per pick	41cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Nets	24c	850.38$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.28	1,554	37.3%579 W · 975 L	-48.1wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe2b…ed08backed Nets	11c	812.87$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.42	50	28%14 W · 36 L	-3.3wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc07c…c4b7backed Nets	16c	812.5$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	-4.4wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x026a…2f8abacked Nets	13c	800$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Nets	9c	763.61$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.15	1,035	1.1%11 W · 1,024 L	-24.4wins	-0.02per pick	3cpaid	-90.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x576b…7336backed Nets	24c	729.83$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.21	183	16.9%31 W · 152 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa26e…c212backed Nets	14c	700$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Cavaliers	63c	695.3$438 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.42	615	32.2%198 W · 417 L	-21.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec6a…a421backed Nets	12c	688.5$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.62	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-3.3wins	-0.23per pick	52cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x37e5…316dbacked Nets	14c	641.33$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.56	56	28.6%16 W · 40 L	+3.3wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	+62.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f19…5df8backed Nets	15c	578.32$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.87	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.11per pick	42cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04b8…3bfcbacked Nets	12c	499.97$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.9wins	-0.16per pick	33cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7405…2797backed Nets	66c	465.43$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.18	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe59b…488ebacked Nets	12c	452.44$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	723	41.2%298 W · 425 L	+23.0wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1797…a900backed Nets	14c	357.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0d…077dbacked Nets	14c	350$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa23f…6176backed Nets	13c	338.77$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.04	65	50.8%33 W · 32 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	56cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0150…a67abacked Nets	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6b…7b67backed Nets	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x610d…188bbacked Nets	14c	331.86$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.46	186	28%52 W · 134 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x603a…fc8bbacked Nets	13c	313$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.69	46	52.2%24 W · 22 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7b2…ece3backed Nets	13c	279.95$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.21	196	42.9%84 W · 112 L	-10.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa52…2cadbacked Nets	13c	261.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8b…2c90backed Nets	14c	256.21$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.87	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Nets	15c	250$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	-3.9wins	-0.12per pick	31cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x04b1…b460backed Nets	15c	233.33$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-19%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x833d…faedbacked Nets	13c	232.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.29	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306b…3ec5backed Cavaliers	77c	207$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.61	113	32.7%37 W · 76 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Nets	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	265	47.9%127 W · 138 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb11…e93fbacked Nets	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e1b…7ccabacked Nets	15c	199.01$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.85	151	49%74 W · 77 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78da…9d47backed Cavaliers	55c	188.16$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.67	68	51.5%35 W · 33 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10c9…c109backed Nets	14c	185.71$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…f6b4backed Nets	12c	173$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.76	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbff2…c5e6backed Nets	14c	164.29$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4af9…9bbdbacked Nets	19c	158.83$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.59	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ad9…538fbacked Nets	15c	152$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0e5…293bbacked Cavaliers	68c	151.02$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.33	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ae5…3113backed Cavaliers	70c	142.86$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.86	233	59.7%139 W · 94 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x600b…2035backed Nets	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-2.5wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x417a…d33bbacked Nets	15c	131.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdec9…2af9backed Cavaliers	25c	129.75$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.31	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2ff…0907backed Nets	14c	124.43$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.42	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f14…b199backed Nets	13c	115.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Nets	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	245	49%120 W · 125 L	+8.4wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a51…df9dbacked Nets	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	46	23.9%11 W · 35 L	-6.1wins	-0.13per pick	37cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0026…cd66backed Nets	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	114	28.1%32 W · 82 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x477a…2650backed Nets	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	35	31.4%11 W · 24 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	39cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf93b…bb37backed Nets	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	276	42%116 W · 160 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a9…6771backed Nets	18c	98.38$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.69	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fc…8b32backed Nets	12c	94.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fdd…0b07backed Nets	13c	90$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	103	34%35 W · 68 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1772…bb32backed Nets	14c	78.57$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	114	28.9%33 W · 81 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb26…94ddbacked Cavaliers	47c	74.81$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.81	100	18%18 W · 82 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8405…783abacked Nets	15c	70.87$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.63	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…d3f2backed Nets	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-3.5wins	-0.16per pick	61cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3cb5…14b1backed Nets	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d25…4e7cbacked Cavaliers	33c	57.82$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.74	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.22per pick	28cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Cavaliers	79c	49.36$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.36	853	47.9%409 W · 444 L	+8.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Cavaliers	41c	28$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.52	360	57.5%207 W · 153 L	-14.7wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x065f…ab50backed Cavaliers	62c	21.66$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.23	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8024…ba91backed Cavaliers	74c	13.53$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.53	109	54.1%59 W · 50 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nets vs. Cavaliers

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market