MLB · resolved market
ALCS: Guardians vs. Yankees Game 5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa43875c77ee419ce15e312ff6bc048cc2e16a2cb8adc55c02d31f7bbbd8c7a63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yankeesof Guardians, Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Guardians | 49c | 20,317$9,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,952.29 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22c…9050backed Yankees | 46c | 10,458$4,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,605.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Guardians | 47c | 3,191$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Guardians | 46c | 2,191$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.85 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yankees | 44c | 2,188$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.34 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Guardians | 18c | 1,929$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.71 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed Guardians | 47c | 1,693$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…26c4backed Yankees | 53c | 1,281$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…c5b2backed Guardians | 24c | 1,004$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…824ebacked Guardians | 46c | 1,001$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yankees | 56c | 1,000$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.66 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da9…7120backed Guardians | 44c | 795.32$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ef…974cbacked Yankees | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Guardians | 16c | 695.91$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…a619backed Yankees | 56c | 636.78$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Guardians | 43c | 582.35$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.41 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…2193backed Guardians | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…6e48backed Guardians | 44c | 485.53$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yankees | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yankees | 39c | 364.17$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.95 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Yankees | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 133 | 54.9%73 W · 60 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Guardians | 57c | 288.46$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.79 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yankees | 26c | 237.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yankees | 52c | 229.56$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.56 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…d3d2backed Guardians | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yankees | 59c | 200$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…b428backed Guardians | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b33…b005backed Guardians | 66c | 200$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…28fabacked Yankees | 48c | 195.35$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.58 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…bc74backed Yankees | 54c | 180.2$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…243fbacked Yankees | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Yankees | 56c | 154.34$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Guardians | 45c | 123.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1c…4eb9backed Yankees | 47c | 107.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Guardians | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5be…8728backed Yankees | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Yankees | 59c | 74.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5523…51e9backed Yankees | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…6d3bbacked Yankees | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Yankees | 49c | 59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…774abacked Yankees | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b96…f366backed Guardians | 47c | 40.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x096e…8a38backed Yankees | 56c | 39.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Yankees | 56c | 35.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Yankees | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a2…cd8abacked Yankees | 55c | 31.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…93c4backed Guardians | 47c | 31.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…88c5backed Yankees | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2206…943dbacked Guardians | 47c | 29.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb1…b2c2backed Yankees | 56c | 28.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72d6…a338backed Yankees | 45c | 28.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Guardians | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…51c4backed Guardians | 46c | 25.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed Yankees | 55c | 25.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…6dbebacked Yankees | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…c6d6backed Guardians | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…ec7ebacked Guardians | 45c | 22.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…eccabacked Yankees | 56c | 21.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yankees | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…c212backed Yankees | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.