Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on January 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa16508804f57fc254038dfbe3c23e8d9b782a263701b0367b9eeab311a298234
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 16c | 911.55$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.85 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…d5bfbacked No | 62c | 748.65$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ea…bc04backed No | 4c | 564.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 49c | 413.31$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.93 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…d890backed No | 16c | 410.79$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 60c | 403$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.97 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed Yes | 74c | 370.19$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…c465backed No | 24c | 337.06$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…3f1bbacked No | 44c | 311.05$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 38c | 253.34$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…00f6backed Yes | 58c | 243.25$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb89…9fdfbacked No | 41c | 231.41$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 32c | 227.47$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.78 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…c149backed Yes | 59c | 193.14$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 45c | 182.64$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.18 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 38c | 179.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed No | 19c | 155.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 54c | 155.08$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…8fb6backed No | 7c | 150.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed No | 12c | 149.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 16c | 144.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x458d…7fdfbacked Yes | 75c | 144$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…5c3fbacked Yes | 68c | 142.12$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f1…c8cebacked Yes | 68c | 140$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 138.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4503…af53backed Yes | 75c | 133.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 24c | 125.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 58c | 124.93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 43c | 124.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…4f91backed Yes | 58c | 119.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 27c | 119.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 34c | 117.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 39c | 115.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 64c | 112.88$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 109.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.09 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f8…3486backed Yes | 42c | 109.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…89f9backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 57c | 96.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 64c | 95.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 21c | 89.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed No | 76c | 82.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…761ebacked Yes | 71c | 82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 79.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…6a86backed No | 22c | 79.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…6199backed No | 47c | 78.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 21c | 76.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4863…805bbacked No | 21c | 71.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0c…43aabacked Yes | 60c | 66.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed No | 20c | 65.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed No | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda97…bf89backed Yes | 24c | 64.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 63c | 63.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 17c | 60.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 63c | 58.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed No | 63c | 58.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 31c | 56.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588e…5a21backed Yes | 80c | 55.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6ca2backed No | 68c | 52.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7b…2c54backed No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…9f18backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…432fbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…016fbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 61c | 49.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 77c | 48.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7db9…5c01backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63b…4e0fbacked Yes | 80c | 39.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe327…cd96backed Yes | 50c | 37.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286f…82a5backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…576bbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 47c | 29.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe838…3832backed Yes | 75c | 29.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf646…bb7bbacked Yes | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab1…57eabacked Yes | 54c | 21.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 55c | 21.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…488bbacked Yes | 77c | 20.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee41…e7bebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x383c…d1b8backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…465fbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…9ee5backed Yes | 76c | 19.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…d3c7backed No | 67c | 18.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 67c | 17.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…7df4backed Yes | 75c | 17.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 66c | 17.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…b78abacked Yes | 67c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…68d1backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd935…a06bbacked Yes | 80c | 14.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe945…94bcbacked Yes | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…0ca9backed Yes | 74c | 14.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on January 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.