TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on January 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,159
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,244

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,159 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xacc8…7d08backed No16c911.55$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.8560235.7%215 W · 387 L+41.3wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xad72…d5bfbacked No62c748.65$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4643652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ea…bc04backed No4c564.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No49c413.31$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9384759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e4f…d890backed No16c410.79$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.84325.6%11 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes60c403$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.9783332.1%267 W · 566 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed Yes74c370.19$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4616…c465backed No24c337.06$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb747…3f1bbacked No44c311.05$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.86650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+34.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No38c253.34$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.047244.4%32 W · 40 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d9c…00f6backed Yes58c243.25$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb89…9fdfbacked No41c231.41$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.81955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes32c227.47$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.781,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf8d…c149backed Yes59c193.14$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.192962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes45c182.64$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1820631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No38c179.18$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.913,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b1c…bd99backed No19c155.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.073743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed Yes54c155.08$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.441,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb856…8fb6backed No7c150.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.32812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-81.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa462…0fb2backed No12c149.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.511920.2%24 W · 95 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No16c144.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5531649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x458d…7fdfbacked Yes75c144$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3335…5c3fbacked Yes68c142.12$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70f1…c8cebacked Yes68c140$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.361513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.2wins-0.28per pick41cpaid-80.6%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c138.86$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.1217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4503…af53backed Yes75c133.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4b1…ab63backed No77c129.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038547.5%183 W · 202 L+16.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3161…623dbacked Yes24c125.38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.72050%10 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes58c124.93$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4257044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No43c124.11$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9912251.6%63 W · 59 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95cd…4f91backed Yes58c119.77$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.771346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes27c119.07$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.6793034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes34c117.45$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.818727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes39c115.63$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6847834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes64c112.88$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6516465.2%107 W · 57 L+18.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes25c109.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.093,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9f8…3486backed Yes42c109.29$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-40.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05a1…89f9backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes57c96.6$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.338,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe62e…917cbacked Yes64c95.1$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2415558.7%91 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No21c89.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8554037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x365f…e1d0backed No76c82.46$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.278253.7%44 W · 38 L-10.2wins-0.12per pick66cpaid-19.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf3f7…761ebacked Yes71c82$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.171770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No23c79.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7994…6a86backed No22c79.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.332433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes76c78.95$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9539541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32e2…6199backed No47c78.32$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.811315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-60.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No21c76.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.946626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4863…805bbacked No21c71.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc0c…43aabacked Yes60c66.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.391533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed No20c65.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b5…5aa7backed No48c65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.316242.6%69 W · 93 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda97…bf89backed Yes24c64.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.16119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes63c63.42$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4221847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9526…8f87backed No32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203941%16 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No17c60.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.242846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2779…62dfbacked Yes61c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.425119.9%50 W · 201 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No63c58.44$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.811,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d65…2061backed No63c58.43$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.817560%45 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes31c56.47$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9619937.7%75 W · 124 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x588e…5a21backed Yes80c55.33$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.121643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6ca2backed No68c52.73$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.983764.9%24 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e7b…2c54backed No77c51.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.31per pick40cpaid-78.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6210…9f18backed Yes75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d7…432fbacked Yes78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6400…016fbacked Yes60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes61c49.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.48337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes77c48.22$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2211646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.235232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7db9…5c01backed Yes26c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+42.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb63b…4e0fbacked Yes80c39.2$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.84728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe327…cd96backed Yes50c37.78$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x286f…82a5backed Yes54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.04966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1eca…576bbacked Yes55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.36714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick48cpaid-74%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No47c29.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.077,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe838…3832backed Yes75c29.16$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf646…bb7bbacked Yes59c27.12$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbab1…57eabacked Yes54c21.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes55c21.44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5810956%61 W · 48 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe658…488bbacked Yes77c20.94$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.88955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee41…e7bebacked No56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x383c…d1b8backed Yes63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x487d…465fbacked Yes67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.63357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+35.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x142c…9ee5backed Yes76c19.06$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.66560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-16.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb903…d3c7backed No67c18.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.12475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed No67c17.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7843050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0141…7df4backed Yes75c17.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No66c17.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.378551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed87…b78abacked Yes67c15.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.112650%13 W · 13 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+28%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x391c…68d1backed No70c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.555152.9%27 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd935…a06bbacked Yes80c14.89$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe945…94bcbacked Yes77c14.29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.29944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-29.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2b46…0ca9backed Yes74c14.21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.67475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.