Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e04d38a55d3370e7e083eebd9776d39d450eb606526164eff3d0cd0d3b00d6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 4c | 960$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 20c | 743.54$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.04 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed No | 75c | 553.73$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.69 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 19c | 526.56$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.59 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…38d6backed Yes | 20c | 515.55$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 4c | 498.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 15c | 471.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 24c | 420$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 74c | 401.13$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.62 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 53c | 393.79$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.76 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 34c | 329.13$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90fa…78a0backed Yes | 39c | 256.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 53c | 234.75$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.54 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 43c | 219.46$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.03 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…5c3fbacked Yes | 19c | 214.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c3…386ebacked Yes | 15c | 209.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Yes | 16c | 202.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 19c | 196.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7b…2c54backed Yes | 51c | 156.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 60c | 145.37$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 41c | 141.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 76c | 141.56$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 41c | 139$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 11c | 132$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb63b…4e0fbacked Yes | 31c | 131.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 34c | 130.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 22c | 115.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…761ebacked Yes | 40c | 113.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 47c | 107.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…0169backed Yes | 57c | 105.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e3…bed9backed Yes | 38c | 97.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 96.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 95.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 35c | 93.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 54c | 87.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a5…667ebacked Yes | 24c | 83.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed Yes | 24c | 68.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 64c | 62.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a90…2df4backed Yes | 26c | 62.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588e…5a21backed Yes | 20c | 61.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 37c | 60.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes | 66c | 60.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x602a…5ab7backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…fafebacked Yes | 35c | 58.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 53.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb89…9fdfbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…0711backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0f…2458backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 37c | 48.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…d5bfbacked Yes | 31c | 41.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ca…2f7fbacked Yes | 28c | 41.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4e…d2ddbacked Yes | 49c | 40.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…1d48backed Yes | 55c | 36.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 36.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 48c | 35.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…8fb6backed No | 69c | 34.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…a9a4backed Yes | 47c | 31.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…a738backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb0…1b9ebacked No | 70c | 26.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 66c | 23.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…472fbacked Yes | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed56…a1f2backed Yes | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0a…fcd0backed No | 58c | 18.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1713…10fabacked No | 69c | 18.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93e8…5f2bbacked Yes | 61c | 17.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8641…09f5backed No | 68c | 15.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on January 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.