Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Iran peace deal in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x988438e45765687cc6c5d456abb95931226d454536bfc96ce16980cae6acad3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $278,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 3c | 9,846$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -53%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…7f87backed Yes | 5c | 8,615$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,238$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 2c | 2,936$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,468$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706f…605fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,451$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 2c | 1,793$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…b8f5backed Yes | 4c | 1,447$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 7c | 1,170$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.61 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba89…93f5backed Yes | 7c | 1,166$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…62e5backed Yes | 7c | 1,085$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7064backed Yes | 3c | 1,035$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…a4e0backed Yes | 6c | 1,011$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece1…2b04backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed Yes | 1c | 999.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 921.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…9661backed Yes | 5c | 600$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 2c | 559.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…0d1bbacked Yes | 5c | 553.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 9c | 499.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 6c | 426.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…f9e9backed Yes | 7c | 409.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…7ad0backed Yes | 2c | 402.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Yes | 3c | 357.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 4c | 333$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 4c | 333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ab…2c73backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5797…2966backed Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfebb…877bbacked Yes | 10c | 208.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…00f6backed Yes | 9c | 202.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…2808backed Yes | 8c | 137.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd566…2cdbbacked Yes | 8c | 137.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c4…953dbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08e…838fbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.