TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel intercepts Greta Thunberg's ship before reaching Gaza?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$205,796
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$216,221

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,796 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x00ee…df8fbacked No2c7,455$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No4c6,912$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.9613033.1%43 W · 87 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No13c5,737$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.2915626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9db4…d1aebacked No5c4,144$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed No20c3,053$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.8140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8756…b36cbacked No7c2,886$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.761010%1 W · 9 L-4.5wins-0.45per pick55cpaid-85.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No2c2,721$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.882078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…9d12backed No2c2,676$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0433…8b4fbacked No9c2,670$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce59…eb51backed No19c2,566$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c1,810$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.161,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed No4c1,639$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.46339.1%3 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-47.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No7c1,602$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.313629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x20bd…8e5cbacked No15c1,519$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed No5c1,452$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.033228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No11c1,447$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.222333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8987…a39bbacked No11c1,439$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.6840%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd03c…68cfbacked No25c1,395$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.342725.9%7 W · 20 L-4.6wins-0.17per pick43cpaid-53.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No12c1,379$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16313746%63 W · 74 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed No9c1,357$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.442441.7%10 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick31cpaid-11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No2c1,065$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.234429.5%13 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3c4…0d19backed No18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-48.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed No16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602814.3%4 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-69.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes78c950$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.56254.8%34 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+31.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8f81…96b8backed No8c948.72$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No16c900.5$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.431931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No8c897.57$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0317530.9%54 W · 121 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No12c882.74$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6712932.6%42 W · 87 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a49…667ebacked No6c861.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf968…84bdbacked No4c857$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No12c856.92$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.739637.5%36 W · 60 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No2c847.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4340828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b13…3df6backed No5c766.62$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No17c704.25$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9689617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed No14c669.74$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7142738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No11c649.33$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.941947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No9c588.23$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.946942%29 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed No19c570.18$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.32548%12 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc028…9349backed No9c550$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.560%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa433…67ccbacked No11c545.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes80c527.6$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.5236750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf8de…c07fbacked No13c519.23$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-55.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d37…43fabacked No12c508.64$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.041844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Yes79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1053542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5643…51ecbacked No9c479.46$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6134…a5eebacked No17c461.29$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No12c459.68$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.248515.3%13 W · 72 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2069…c7cfbacked No12c449.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.51030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec63…85ddbacked No17c409.09$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd9…bccebacked No5c402.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.464639.1%18 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed No15c390$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.519445.9%89 W · 105 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51d4…65bbbacked No25c384.67$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked No4c382.61$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.531822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-41.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f61…c8aabacked No14c360.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f8d…6790backed No17c360.51$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fa7…37fbbacked Yes70c352.37$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.281612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-81.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd712…228dbacked No3c334.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3970%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed No13c323.07$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-36.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ce1…bfc9backed No11c311.02$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c34…8fe0backed No7c310$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7518151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424641.3%19 W · 27 L-6.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x410a…e8b8backed Yes80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602055%11 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No14c294.48$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.52321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-52.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No18c275.11$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.41647.8%5 W · 59 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-53.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e8…249abacked No15c271.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa581…45b2backed No19c250$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.51936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-41%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No15c249.97$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.513360.9%81 W · 52 L+18.4wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa12f…3322backed No15c249.11$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.35837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked No4c249$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9623525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No5c247$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.139711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0aeb…cb83backed No7c245.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b4d…f7dbbacked No6c241.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdb8…e969backed No26c241.27$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6250%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07c…bbb0backed No22c231.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick40cpaid+49.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x827a…07ccbacked No24c209.81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4803…6febbacked No12c208.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252520%5 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No12c204.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0731719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed No7c200.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.074833.3%16 W · 32 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d7e…a7b0backed No11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+51.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked No11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227644.7%34 W · 42 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+3.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed No13c200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258529.4%25 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked No17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf5e…4168backed No12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No9c199.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1719829.3%58 W · 140 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ef4…833cbacked No15c199.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3c2…4074backed No14c194.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed No16c187.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c09…dfb9backed Yes78c185$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c46…a137backed No11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202821.4%6 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8add…fc2abacked No16c161.54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No17c160.19$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1947334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No10c159.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8226616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc561…fa80backed No15c150$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228763.2%55 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93b4…2486backed No12c150$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked No11c149.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd39d…00bcbacked No18c143.1$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.31020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef71…704fbacked Yes77c141$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.29580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick75cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61a4…c98fbacked No20c131.08$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3730%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5070…e12abacked No17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.