Bundesliga · resolved market
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-09-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61aaf0b2d54ad65d824b4c93cef3dc705e3f13e6f8faab9e1d776d6b807e448c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1470…7cbebacked Yes | 35c | 6,704$2,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,359.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 65c | 4,150$2,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,697.6 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 65c | 2,168$1,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.05 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed No | 36c | 2,052$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.98 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 65c | 1,241$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.21 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Yes | 32c | 1,069$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.74 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 34c | 892.14$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.54 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 68c | 650$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…83dabacked No | 38c | 615$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 42c | 552.3$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.66 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 67c | 494$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.71 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 78c | 434$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.78 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Yes | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 36c | 312$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 55c | 305.39$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.26 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 33c | 252.94$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.58 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Yes | 34c | 220.59$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.59 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 63c | 217.42$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.06 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 64c | 200.47$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.46 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 61c | 191.5$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.44 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked No | 68c | 171.13$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.87 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 34c | 164.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…7becbacked No | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…4291backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 69c | 145.34$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 9c | 145$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 35c | 145$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb90c…9a6abacked Yes | 40c | 123.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 41c | 123.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 33c | 112$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.04 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bf…345abacked Yes | 34c | 110$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +8.0wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 34c | 99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 29c | 93.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 68c | 85.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 67c | 76.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…8d57backed Yes | 34c | 65.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…c177backed Yes | 38c | 64.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f2…d036backed Yes | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…f7debacked Yes | 34c | 58.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…239abacked Yes | 37c | 53.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…ba1abacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 63c | 50.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…7102backed No | 67c | 43.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…e772backed Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…24babacked Yes | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…4812backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8402backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x484f…28cbbacked No | 67c | 16.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-09-13?this page
- Will FSV Mainz 05 vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?No won
- Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-09-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.