Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc76dd2cb361f2b2417505f7c14aa3f45524745fa3bce4ba76127f7fad1a4ed06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,178$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.2 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 74c | 594$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.44 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ba…2589backed Yes | 27c | 146.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 137$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 73c | 137$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed No | 73c | 128.7$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 74c | 87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…403bbacked Yes | 26c | 62.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 73c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed No | 77c | 47.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 72c | 37.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…ca96backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 72c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…0b63backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FSV Mainz 05 vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?this page
- Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-09-13?No won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-09-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.