Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05-1.09ºC in May 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda5c919b74e2c6f5629ff47738bc4bc1ae45096719faafb5b2720ba293df00d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29f7…c2e2backed No | 39c | 31,044$12,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,107.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12b…0ed6backed Yes | 61c | 31,044$18,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,107.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…3ef7backed Yes | 69c | 5,749$3,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,787.36 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 63c | 3,646$2,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.41 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed No | 1c | 2,579$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 45c | 1,867$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.17 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…c857backed No | 41c | 782$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 30c | 530$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.9 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked No | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 490.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 72c | 483.87$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 281.54$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked No | 9c | 273$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 46c | 243.98$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 26c | 203.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.05 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 32c | 171.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…cb07backed No | 26c | 159.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +137.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 65c | 136.22$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 46c | 122.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +7.1wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 38c | 114.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e79…c9d4backed Yes | 65c | 102.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9186…9220backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 63c | 99.9$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 31c | 56.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 66c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77ea…b6b5backed Yes | 73c | 18.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05-1.09ºC in May 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10-1.14ºC in May 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15-1.19ºC in May 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in May 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in May 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in May 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.