Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will WLD hit $1.3 by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5debe0b261efbe48d2a4f60d8f1e74353aeb5111d7654c6b5a265581e13d8bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,413$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 2,397$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,849$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 77c | 1,436$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.43 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…c2b6backed Yes | 12c | 1,059$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 4c | 1,035$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…6a46backed Yes | 6c | 1,020$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed No | 60c | 755.63$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.63 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf493…f4f6backed Yes | 20c | 599.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.22 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked No | 78c | 578.78$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4d…1ee4backed Yes | 9c | 573.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e2…8f94backed Yes | 13c | 494.52$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa656…6db5backed Yes | 13c | 489.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…23f8backed Yes | 44c | 450.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 63c | 399.97$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.99 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…79c8backed Yes | 19c | 263.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 5c | 249.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 34c | 187.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…bc30backed Yes | 68c | 147.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 142.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | -19.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…f3e1backed No | 57c | 138.76$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…e125backed No | 73c | 136.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…c073backed No | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…7808backed Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4397…e6fbbacked No | 76c | 53.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 57c | 50.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6009…1dc8backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 27c | 43.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ab…32e7backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…763abacked No | 63c | 40.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 41c | 39.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x105a…f301backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -7.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb45c…9cf5backed No | 64c | 31.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f52…6f28backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2623…845dbacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 79c | 25.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x852c…0ef4backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1a…b75ebacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.