Us Politics · resolved market
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa72ab2af106e3f50d0e610f27e6ef3f6827193b444277b56199858a2f09ffe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993c…6787backed Down | 15c | 1,473$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.09 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Down | 28c | 1,415$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.48 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Up | 40c | 840.24$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.8 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Up | 56c | 345.73$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.28 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 42c | 337.51$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.32 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 53c | 266.14$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.86 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Down | 52c | 227$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.04 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Down | 23c | 195.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Down | 53c | 183.09$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.64 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Up | 45c | 150.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.95 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…34bcbacked Up | 56c | 136.9$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Up | 56c | 129.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Up | 47c | 122$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Up | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 22c | 88.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed Down | 20c | 77.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa887…baacbacked Down | 60c | 70.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Up | 28c | 69.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Down | 29c | 59.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +96%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Up | 57c | 56.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…829ebacked Down | 58c | 55.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Up | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd58…2205backed Up | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Down | 43c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…f582backed Up | 42c | 42.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Down | 48c | 41.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…7808backed Down | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Up | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Down | 58c | 29.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1f…448fbacked Down | 53c | 27.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfebb…877bbacked Up | 68c | 21.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…5f3ebacked Down | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed Down | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…5aa2backed Up | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6662…cfc5backed Up | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.