TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 20-26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$502,392
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$509,986

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $502,392 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes18c17,372$3,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,124.5958126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes16c10,160$1,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,593.4267.7%2 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-69.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes13c9,156$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.5887828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c7,803$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.081,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae5…33c1backed Yes15c6,649$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010315.5%16 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid+28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed Yes14c6,575$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed No66c5,827$3,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,005.7424654.9%135 W · 111 L+16.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x656c…d10bbacked Yes43c5,570$2,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,420.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+53.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff96…9004backed Yes22c4,440$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa09c…f710backed No77c4,131$3,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.43616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-78.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No49c3,300$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,69610545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1352…4da4backed Yes4c3,114$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-88.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b52…654bbacked Yes3c3,063$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e81…8406backed Yes23c2,930$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6682213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes2c2,700$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.37020%14 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Yes12c2,671$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.44425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de0…87a0backed Yes3c2,519$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes2c2,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes31c2,400$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73263835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa279…0371backed No74c2,352$1,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.945444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9066…c20abacked Yes36c2,194$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.4115561.9%96 W · 59 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes6c2,078$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.3928021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed No57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8604242.9%18 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0495…c68fbacked Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-46.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda2c…4168backed Yes3c1,987$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes15c1,971$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.8322550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes4c1,860$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.188625.6%22 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes3c1,852$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501379.5%13 W · 124 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes3c1,780$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae88…b4b4backed Yes8c1,688$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes4c1,680$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41fe…79c1backed Yes39c1,564$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.143923.1%9 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55f7…fb04backed Yes9c1,119$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17b9…430dbacked Yes32c1,088$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.04955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+27.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed No66c1,022$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.646417.2%11 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+163.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd805…52c2backed Yes16c1,000$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.185446.3%25 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22b8…04cebacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5130%0 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf1c2…ec20backed Yes23c958.71$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0841…e9f9backed Yes2c948.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes4c887.24$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353542.9%15 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+109.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes32c832$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.1212012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdd6…23f8backed Yes13c828.58$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.53287.1%2 W · 26 L-4.2wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-85.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes18c807.17$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.94402.5%1 W · 39 L-5.9wins-0.15per pick17cpaid-96.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7c0c…6825backed Yes14c750$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.560%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b60…ddcabacked Yes37c745.1$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.69812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick42cpaid-81.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x526c…cfabbacked Yes15c666.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001414.3%2 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid+274.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd150…5983backed Yes3c645.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Yes3c634.94$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.674920.4%10 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked Yes21c625$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1313447.1%16 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe61f…f07abacked Yes5c613.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ee…e354backed Yes7c583.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403917.9%7 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4c2…0e8cbacked Yes5c576.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b69…e9a0backed Yes18c569.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes10c514.97$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.287424.3%18 W · 56 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed Yes11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553522.9%8 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff1…6c6bbacked Yes4c461.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-70.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed No73c453.88$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.077746.8%36 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x525d…fa24backed Yes23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1dd…a272backed Yes39c422.17$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.3111726.5%31 W · 86 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb4a0…2f88backed No60c400$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.82231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64c5…feeabacked Yes30c399.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204955.1%27 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No42c367.51$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.1540643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes13c365.58$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.141024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aba…af7cbacked Yes4c330$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6250%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe480…ae5fbacked Yes13c307.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes14c300.18$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.968239%32 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9be3…724dbacked Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee0…f33bbacked Yes7c297.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa750…6df5backed Yes69c289.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3673…ce22backed Yes16c286.36$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45837.2%6 W · 77 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2c8…cbd5backed No78c264.45$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Yes4c250.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-48.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x405e…de7ebacked Yes6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-67.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5877…d3debacked No75c250$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.25947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55b4…6697backed Yes23c237.09$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ba9…b683backed Yes11c227.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x096e…3fa6backed Yes18c222.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35d4…99f8backed Yes16c211.7$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x095c…7dd0backed Yes23c208.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked No77c205.99$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.117642.1%32 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7856…f39abacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4cc…9b43backed Yes7c199.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc425…5c7cbacked Yes6c190$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes11c182.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.929022.2%20 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-28.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x17cb…d67cbacked Yes16c180$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.83151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x831b…1957backed Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes25c165.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.866434.4%22 W · 42 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e60…cbfdbacked Yes16c162.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa40a…0aaebacked Yes24c146$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ba…96c1backed Yes14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a18…badcbacked Yes14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b33…11d0backed Yes49c142.86$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e3…1962backed Yes15c136.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5373…46d1backed Yes8c136.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ceb…8c29backed Yes8c134.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+28.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5bd…169abacked Yes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82b6…86f9backed Yes23c124.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1e…7581backed Yes14c109.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2154…715cbacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.72142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-35.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x984c…a21abacked No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.