Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 20-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x648fceaf679e08e7cd67674788ca1d3567e7341200b6c221c8081bf0fabb491b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed No | 80c | 10,000$7,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 23c | 4,872$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.95 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 26c | 4,510$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.34 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…19d8backed Yes | 6c | 3,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f29…523ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,714$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb36…09f3backed No | 58c | 1,654$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 7c | 1,565$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.21 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…97a5backed No | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.46 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed No | 70c | 1,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 27c | 1,376$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.2 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…2bf1backed Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67dc…a64bbacked No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…b265backed Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 977.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked No | 57c | 745$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.92 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…01cbbacked No | 72c | 538.58$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…23f8backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 55c | 363$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.35 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…3309backed Yes | 4c | 349.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…a86bbacked No | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 41c | 304.17$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d02…6013backed Yes | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cda…608cbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 40c | 222.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…2fa1backed Yes | 19c | 199.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes | 37c | 172.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1db…e1bcbacked No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 55c | 166.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac8…c3debacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…75babacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 47c | 113.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 40c | 106$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 17cpaid | -96.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93ec…a395backed Yes | 35c | 103.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8079…b9cbbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…cbfdbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…7ec0backed Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 72c | 62.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…61dabacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xada3…02e5backed Yes | 47c | 51.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf78…3c62backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 40c | 27.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd157…c91dbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 20-26?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $96,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $98,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $112,000 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $114,000 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 20-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.