Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 20-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb940e28525c3d29653ead62a083027ff3ac4a5e6e76717d4560d7baf7759ca6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 16c | 8,372$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.1 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8397…2baabacked Yes | 1c | 7,200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82f…1d21backed Yes | 6c | 6,617$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.57 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 77c | 4,005$3,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.17 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 6c | 3,673$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.21 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 15c | 2,467$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.82 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 78c | 2,008$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.97 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x173f…69b0backed No | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 14c | 1,800$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 12c | 1,658$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…e9a0backed Yes | 2c | 1,294$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,230$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 2.4%2 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…8723backed Yes | 7c | 1,003$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ce…f82abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1db…e1bcbacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 26c | 700$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed Yes | 3c | 610.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…8406backed Yes | 9c | 600$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4592…77aebacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes | 8c | 499.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…b539backed Yes | 10c | 499.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x525d…fa24backed Yes | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…2f88backed Yes | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed Yes | 18c | 355.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…a272backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 117 | 26.5%31 W · 86 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 30c | 225.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…badcbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…ac4bbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 57c | 183$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.69 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54ca…7e84backed Yes | 9c | 120.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb11…bd94backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…cbfdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1a…c3b0backed Yes | 23c | 95.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb10a…aafebacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada3…02e5backed Yes | 47c | 51.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 20-26?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $96,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $98,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $112,000 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $114,000 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 20-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.