Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 20-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40f38d9d3542f21a534be8e0b2d7053051b1316b2d0662e72995d78210ce2feb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 10c | 9,761$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.08 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…19d8backed Yes | 3c | 6,678$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 17c | 4,418$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.97 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 22c | 2,648$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.15 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 26c | 1,500$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…52c2backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…cf51backed No | 71c | 1,000$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cda…608cbacked Yes | 28c | 716.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…ac4bbacked Yes | 2c | 669.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc74…216cbacked No | 79c | 600$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 21c | 427.2$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.84 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 17cpaid | -96.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…8304backed No | 76c | 330$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 307.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345e…6bc7backed Yes | 15c | 293$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 23c | 218.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked No | 79c | 182$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47aa…09e9backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9338…8addbacked No | 76c | 144.13$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 11c | 140$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…a86bbacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03f…a7dabacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…2f88backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…cbfdbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 22c | 93.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 14c | 87.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2642…2bafbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes | 22c | 81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd1…73b4backed No | 77c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386e…3463backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 78c | 29.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…e1e6backed No | 76c | 19.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 20-26?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $96,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $98,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $112,000 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $114,000 October 20-26?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 20-26?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 20-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.