TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 20-26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$307,591
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$284,652

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $307,591 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes0c47,010$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.39185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+144.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No36c23,643$8,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,169.7210545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2b6…80b9backed Yes62c12,936$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0001154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94da…2bf1backed No52c11,994$6,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,706.253351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d34…5aaebacked Yes66c9,930$6,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,584.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes13c8,887$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.628021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed No80c7,000$5,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4201450%7 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-34%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Yes23c5,433$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes36c5,394$1,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,946.2311554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes63c5,045$3,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,160.8887828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9066…c20abacked Yes42c4,952$2,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,060.0415561.9%96 W · 59 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes47c4,393$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.7255032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed Yes13c4,041$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.4440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,384$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.031,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce10…51d4backed No33c2,695$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.988038.8%31 W · 49 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed No69c2,367$1,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.0924654.9%135 W · 111 L+16.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c1b…5084backed No41c2,244$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.9250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No35c2,010$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,296.7558126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3513…3504backed Yes39c1,845$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes3c1,839$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes65c1,721$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.5763835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fd2…48e6backed No30c1,667$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.67540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+120.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes1c1,635$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9923411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes29c1,453$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.52402.5%1 W · 39 L-5.9wins-0.15per pick17cpaid-96.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed No35c1,305$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.014920.4%10 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2bd0…db0dbacked Yes9c1,260$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98f1…f2ddbacked Yes9c1,234$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ef…de81backed Yes11c914.81$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.985637.5%21 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67dc…a64bbacked No57c800$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3441442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe626…6771backed No66c757.58$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.582839.3%11 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick29cpaid-8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1c2…ec20backed Yes41c754.55$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes34c723.68$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.4940643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f29…523ebacked Yes3c596.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74b6…41d8backed No68c579.24$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.24757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x010b…81dcbacked Yes22c541.15$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.434837.5%18 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked No59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2055453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked No38c467.35$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.277642.1%32 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes41c466.88$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.4122550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes8c426.13$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.17424.3%18 W · 56 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6eb7…1b8ebacked No25c405.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+35.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked No19c357.11$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.543447.1%16 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x64c5…feeabacked No54c327.66$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.974955.1%27 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b26…cf9abacked No31c322.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.582100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+144.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5877…d3debacked No53c262$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.865947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes35c255.04$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.066434.4%22 W · 42 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x405e…de7ebacked Yes14c250$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-67.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed No29c213.33$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.499022.2%20 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-28.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc5fa…9795backed Yes37c202.84$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.952466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe2ee…e354backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203917.9%7 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e08…3bd4backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb29e…fd62backed No22c178.53$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+123.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b7a…8304backed No38c159.3$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.294161%25 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1275…1517backed Yes39c150$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.52552%13 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb9…b55ebacked No68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.06875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec2…d4debacked No77c126.68$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe52d…3728backed No61c125$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.752254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+28.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9118…c706backed No33c121.21$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72a1…026dbacked No61c120$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.82653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a0…2f88backed No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x984c…a21abacked No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x754f…4e38backed Yes66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3821…8e87backed Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa324…c18abacked Yes41c94.72$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.812657.7%15 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked No62c89.67$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8526274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x958b…61ecbacked Yes64c78.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Yes41c73.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd4…49b7backed Yes33c64.88$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.41633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe1c…7e02backed Yes27c64.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c40…6158backed Yes63c63.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcab9…99d0backed No31c62.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.141546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbabd…3335backed No39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.721236.8%78 W · 134 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2717…a007backed Yes23c55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8880…3eaabacked No41c51.12$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa24f…61dabacked Yes65c45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.25520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-54.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xecfe…e3e0backed Yes36c44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4457…d05dbacked Yes57c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No35c38.35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9364812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes61c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick36cpaid-80.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3959…79c0backed Yes69c28.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52a0…4156backed Yes70c28.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40d7…9beabacked Yes58c26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.01475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fa4…a1bfbacked No74c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.271060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7975…d3f7backed Yes63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb839…6f4fbacked Yes67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1488…e844backed Yes71c19.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.55450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fd5…8ff3backed Yes69c15.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb89…9e42backed Yes74c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.