AI · resolved market
Will any AI reach $50k in Alpha Arena AI trading competition?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb30535f1bf8d07471b447c863571a8274dccacfe82ec1e6bd1f1480462b014d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,540$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.99 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab8…590fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,201$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3779…f5c4backed Yes | 6c | 866.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 749.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes | 6c | 591.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93a…6b34backed Yes | 5c | 539.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 4c | 474.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…2ab8backed Yes | 7c | 425$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 6c | 421.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ae…b202backed Yes | 10c | 294.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2e…1724backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Yes | 7c | 199.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 179$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…0ea2backed Yes | 12c | 160.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 129.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.