Us Politics · resolved market
Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a4fa02bbdd52dd77f320c836c038c07ee558e6a0e03ef3d14b887e217f16ea8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x871a…1451backed No | 0c | 51,500$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 0c | 19,700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…2e44backed No | 23c | 6,142$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.94 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,145$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 4c | 3,846$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 4c | 2,105$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 4c | 1,477$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 74c | 1,256$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.11 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 74c | 852.81$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.14 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 6c | 841.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 77c | 775.84$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.76 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 3c | 515.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 3c | 442$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…2cfabacked No | 4c | 320$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed No | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…d837backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed Yes | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 68cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c49…7af9backed No | 40c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 61c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 77c | 29.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0101…27c8backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…f99ebacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by November 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.