Us Politics · resolved market
Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0bbd491c448d630802918deef263d7b2277975a7310c928ba90b70218f9ee1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 7c | 4,284$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 6c | 2,666$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 6c | 2,664$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.81 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…dd84backed Yes | 40c | 1,529$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.8 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccb4…ac9cbacked No | 58c | 1,035$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 43c | 916.2$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.2 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 904.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 42c | 684.54$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.65 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 58c | 500$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…5e0fbacked No | 63c | 500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 44c | 444.12$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…2cfabacked No | 7c | 405$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 74c | 336.46$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.46 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 31c | 321.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 26c | 304.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 29c | 241$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed Yes | 74c | 232.02$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 37c | 225$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…25d5backed No | 24c | 224.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…40dcbacked No | 50c | 198.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31f7…3f66backed Yes | 45c | 193$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca4…3fe6backed No | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc3…ed15backed No | 22c | 167.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…48cfbacked No | 64c | 156.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…3130backed No | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 37c | 147.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.7 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…e2a2backed Yes | 59c | 112$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e3…30c4backed Yes | 62c | 109.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…3005backed No | 25c | 102.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…d837backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd6…77adbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 70c | 99.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…220abacked Yes | 50c | 97.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…d0e3backed No | 55c | 92.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 91.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 52c | 76.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 42c | 69.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf356…3effbacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…d8d3backed No | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 61c | 62.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…d0d9backed Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 67c | 54.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c49…7af9backed No | 62c | 53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…a377backed No | 20c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffe…b69dbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…9496backed No | 64c | 46.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…1d17backed No | 32c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 75c | 40.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9903…752bbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 79c | 38.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e0…0e04backed Yes | 44c | 25.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…00debacked Yes | 55c | 25.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…a31cbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6211…a0b2backed Yes | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0f…b165backed Yes | 77c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9220…4dd9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae03…2282backed No | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by November 30?this page
- Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.