Will Alabama win the 2026 College Football National Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8d6fbaf1356b30536bbe1cc5d75334a22e2875b2034e6bd62bddec12e39e209

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $317,840
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $299,060

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $317,840 — the venue’s figure.

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Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in College Football
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes	4c	35,918$1,569 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,568.99	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-2.7wins	-0.20per pick	41cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67f9…d241backed Yes	6c	25,833$1,507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,506.8	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Yes	5c	12,367$640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$639.98	148	36.5%54 W · 94 L	-11.5wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe18c…37c1backed Yes	5c	11,923$585 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$585.06	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8adb…dd2fbacked Yes	6c	7,800$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$506.64	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	16cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes	5c	5,409$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.67	292	49%143 W · 149 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7a6…8117backed Yes	5c	5,238$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.2	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.23per pick	27cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Yes	4c	5,063$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.4	47	38.3%18 W · 29 L	-5.0wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-23%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes	6c	5,000$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes	13c	4,941$646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$646.17	684	40.8%279 W · 405 L	-10.7wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…d95bbacked Yes	6c	4,577$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x394c…a639backed Yes	7c	4,546$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.64	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Yes	4c	3,590$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.35	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1802…d00fbacked Yes	5c	3,552$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.47	71	45.1%32 W · 39 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f2…1a94backed Yes	6c	3,278$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	3c	3,004$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.17	632	43.7%276 W · 356 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+138.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcb1…d3e3backed Yes	10c	3,000$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.44	60	48.3%29 W · 31 L	+8.2wins	+0.14per pick	35cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8f6d…6b4ebacked Yes	5c	2,778$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed Yes	6c	2,578$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.95	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+2.3wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes	4c	2,378$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.31	242	29.3%71 W · 171 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c52…ff83backed Yes	7c	2,137$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.89	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Yes	5c	2,112$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.94	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56dc…f02bbacked Yes	3c	2,100$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.3	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	2,011$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.96	280	32.9%92 W · 188 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8b0d…2712backed Yes	6c	1,800$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.6	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.16per pick	44cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked Yes	5c	1,710$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.13	47	34%16 W · 31 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x855a…0985backed Yes	4c	1,633$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.7	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a4…caf5backed Yes	3c	1,559$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.95	47	6.4%3 W · 44 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x220a…0066backed Yes	6c	1,557$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	1,480$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.9	224	4%9 W · 215 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-74.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27dc…0102backed Yes	8c	1,290$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.1	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83c8…5d9ebacked Yes	4c	1,282$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	57	56.1%32 W · 25 L	+4.1wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	6c	1,235$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.85	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd410…c812backed Yes	6c	1,200$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55f4…959cbacked Yes	4c	1,151$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.77	62	50%31 W · 31 L	+5.8wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	7c	1,058$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.59	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d52…47c5backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.3wins	-0.21per pick	39cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Yes	9c	1,000$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.03	36	27.8%10 W · 26 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85e1…0e40backed Yes	10c	990$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x247f…ff45backed Yes	4c	912.98$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	5c	893.09$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.18	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	5c	873.95$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.95	128	16.4%21 W · 107 L	-8.4wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3f4…05e9backed Yes	5c	865$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.8	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-45.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa04…72f4backed Yes	6c	795.19$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.66	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes	4c	785.54$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.89	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-2.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ef6…5afdbacked Yes	6c	757.51$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.99	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe556…3157backed Yes	6c	718.98$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes	5c	714.01$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.49	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf4b…0c72backed Yes	14c	712$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cbf…4665backed Yes	7c	703.26$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	14cpaid	+526.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x553c…e305backed Yes	7c	696.49$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	628.43$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.85	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…c53fbacked Yes	7c	625.93$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.81	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes	8c	625$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	568	44.5%253 W · 315 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes	5c	624.21$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.21	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes	5c	619.57$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.22	399	54.1%216 W · 183 L	+16.7wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9a6…3133backed Yes	8c	600$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes	4c	599.97$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	134	32.8%44 W · 90 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe95b…d4d5backed Yes	16c	583.48$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.29	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.18per pick	27cpaid	+42.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x09b3…7d36backed Yes	7c	576.81$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	7c	549.2$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.99	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	+2.5wins	+0.11per pick	20cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfba9…3d42backed Yes	4c	535.49$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcae5…876dbacked Yes	4c	523.63$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.31	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa13b…1a4dbacked Yes	7c	518.07$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.62	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	45cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2588…1cfdbacked Yes	5c	500$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42a6…c54abacked Yes	3c	500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Yes	6c	487.23$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.87	198	49%97 W · 101 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Yes	6c	477.27$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	219	41.6%91 W · 128 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcff…a5d5backed Yes	6c	472.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.9	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes	6c	465.26$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.9	52	42.3%22 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	4c	447.88$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	41	31.7%13 W · 28 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe672…2567backed Yes	14c	439$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.66	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes	6c	431.72$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	72	34.7%25 W · 47 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ab…1f24backed Yes	6c	428.35$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42e2…4d16backed Yes	10c	404.19$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.1	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	4c	378.66$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.56	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	7c	339.86$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.92	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x748d…408cbacked Yes	6c	328.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	33cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	6c	289.36$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.75	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	6c	282.07$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.78	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb358…e547backed Yes	6c	275.76$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.55	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0255…ba2dbacked Yes	7c	190.14$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	8c	176.28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	103	40.8%42 W · 61 L	+6.2wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfca9…cb3dbacked Yes	8c	162.5$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	43	27.9%12 W · 31 L	-7.1wins	-0.16per pick	44cpaid	-46%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.55	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba14…318abacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xad21…cefcbacked Yes	11c	99.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39e6…617fbacked Yes	13c	97.79$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Alabama win the 2026 College Football National Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event