Will Texas A&M win the 2026 College Football National Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1ebc967736def88d2c26df992b60502ea2a44bae4a68804d308e3e9ba3395cc

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 20, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $107,005
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $69,347

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,005 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in College Football
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa974…ef79backed Yes	12c	21,337$2,569 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,568.81	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-17%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	10,656$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.84	224	4%9 W · 215 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-74.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Yes	4c	7,282$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.27	127	46.5%59 W · 68 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…f36ebacked Yes	16c	3,715$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb1…d3e3backed Yes	11c	3,569$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396	60	48.3%29 W · 31 L	+8.2wins	+0.14per pick	35cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe621…1bbabacked Yes	6c	3,322$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	4c	2,266$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.41	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes	2c	2,228$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.78	88	51.1%45 W · 43 L	+9.3wins	+0.11per pick	41cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc4d5…c53fbacked Yes	7c	2,135$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.62	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ef3…c555backed Yes	10c	1,699$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.74	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+2.8wins	+0.13per pick	42cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	6c	1,460$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.33	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Yes	10c	1,401$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.08	118	39%46 W · 72 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8adb…dd2fbacked Yes	5c	1,330$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.79	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	16cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x78ba…0656backed Yes	4c	1,326$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83c8…5d9ebacked Yes	4c	1,075$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	57	56.1%32 W · 25 L	+4.1wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e9e…70d6backed Yes	5c	1,049$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	4c	1,039$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.04	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	+2.5wins	+0.11per pick	20cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Yes	4c	925.78$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.32	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc7e…06a2backed Yes	5c	910$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08f6…cdfdbacked Yes	5c	888.05$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	4c	737.97$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.16	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	4c	580.9$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.69	128	16.4%21 W · 107 L	-8.4wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x09b3…7d36backed Yes	5c	544.41$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf306…3006backed Yes	4c	536.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.94	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.32per pick	18cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes	4c	528.95$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.04	183	38.8%71 W · 112 L	-12.3wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes	8c	499.96$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.9	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes	6c	481.55$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.82	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ad…08afbacked Yes	4c	444.56$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.49	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	4c	432.33$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.75	41	31.7%13 W · 28 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe539…5345backed Yes	4c	427$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x247f…ff45backed Yes	5c	424.41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	417.13$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.59	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes	10c	374.99$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.62	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	29cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a2e…e967backed Yes	13c	349.31$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.2	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.26per pick	43cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3554…a6e6backed Yes	13c	301.42$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	+135.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	300$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	280	32.9%92 W · 188 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes	6c	244.32$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.41	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-2.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x704f…b859backed Yes	5c	229.03$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.03	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8aa…6eb3backed Yes	9c	222.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	43cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a4a…850fbacked Yes	9c	218.76$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bfe…e92ebacked Yes	5c	212.51$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.8wins	+0.30per pick	37cpaid	+114.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x561b…7938backed Yes	5c	191.48$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.22per pick	11cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe250…bd6abacked Yes	14c	175.76$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbae0…5cd6backed Yes	10c	140.31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.52	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb7d…b6bfbacked Yes	14c	108.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.39	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Texas A&M win the 2026 College Football National Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event