Will Notre Dame win the 2026 College Football National Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b5063914822db52e7f7d25ff4695a2f18f3126478a02a280874f260fffdc269

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $80,456
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $76,856

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,456 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in College Football
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7211…3f06backed Yes	7c	7,925$547 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$546.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	5,116$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.55	224	4%9 W · 215 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-74.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	2c	5,079$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.81	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	2c	4,967$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.89	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	+2.5wins	+0.11per pick	20cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cf…dbadbacked Yes	7c	4,244$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.78	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	26cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3f4…05e9backed Yes	7c	3,850$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.21	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-45.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5b…8882backed Yes	3c	3,012$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.1	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked Yes	6c	1,500$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.07	47	34%16 W · 31 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x704f…b859backed Yes	2c	1,452$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes	5c	1,300$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.8	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Yes	5c	1,050$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.2	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ef3…c555backed Yes	8c	999.99$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+2.8wins	+0.13per pick	42cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1802…d00fbacked Yes	8c	999.97$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	71	45.1%32 W · 39 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8864…2c6abacked Yes	7c	859.43$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	7c	825.63$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.76	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f95…cd47backed Yes	11c	612.36$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.32	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-28%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x177e…a572backed Yes	17c	582.78$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	70	60%42 W · 28 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes	9c	559.17$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	29cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c1…ed44backed Yes	8c	406.69$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.02	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes	6c	380.32$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.73	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-63.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe95b…d4d5backed Yes	6c	369$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.23	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.18per pick	27cpaid	+42.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	6c	365.97$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.36	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	3c	351.38$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.95	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.9wins	-0.16per pick	33cpaid	-76.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes	5c	327$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.95	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cec…1e3dbacked Yes	7c	324.59$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes	5c	311$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd425…7518backed Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7541…09d1backed Yes	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-4.9wins	-0.15per pick	50cpaid	-35%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes	4c	286$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	71	43.7%31 W · 40 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2419…1514backed Yes	9c	264.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77ff…4ddebacked Yes	11c	183.47$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42e2…4d16backed Yes	7c	176.3$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.91	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Notre Dame win the 2026 College Football National Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event